Thursday, April 3, 2008

Who is the next Karnataka's MukyaMantri?

Here's my analysis on the future of Karnataka Assembly Elections 2008 in May
Total Seats: 224
Majority required: 112 (at least)

With dates already announced, it is a triangular contest now more or less reduced to a square contest between Congress and BJP. But the square is not even as some traces of triangulation still remain. The JD(S) for sure is going to fare badly. This is because JD(S) has time and again withdrew support to both Congress and BJP and has created a very bad image for the people in the state (Thank god!!!).

For the JD(S), every other common man on the streets of Bangalore is literally spitting over the party because of the paralysis they have brought in for 4 years now. So, their vote share will reduce. Probably from 58, it will fall back to 40 or 30..Still can cause a major problem. This is what I call triangulation traces in the contest

For the BJP, it is a sympathy wave they are enjoying for just running a week long government. They never had a chance to rule. It was the single largest party in the last election. With a large number of local leaders, leaders from both Congress and JD(S) in Chitradurga, northern districts, Kolar and Tumkur all having joined BJP, BJP seems to be very strong in numbers. Moreover, Yediyurappa is a man strongly connected with rural people. So, a very high chance of getting majority.

For the Congress, good news is S.M. Krishna is back, but not as a potential CM candidate. There is already fight for the CM candidate amongst Kharge, Siddaramaih, Margaret Alva, Oscar Fernandes etc and it will be a tough projection. But Congress playing it safe has kept its CM candidate announcement a secret. Which means the elections will be fought on farm loan waiver. Though Karnataka is going to benefit, many will not get as there are too many loopholes as to who will get. So, the very announcement and that Rahul Gandhi touring the districts where BJP did well last time, a deep contest has been set between the Congress and BJP.

If farm waiver publicity (hype and not real in anyway) works, Congress is all set to gain. If not, Congress will not. The only reason S.M. Krishna is not being projected as C.M is because his image is pro-urban and anti-farmer. So, Congress does not want to lose the feel good factor of farm loan waiver.

So, "yaarige baruvudu mukyamantriya kurchi" (Who will get the CM seat?). If SM Krishna is announced as CM candidate, I want Congress, else BJP, but definitely never JD(S). JD(S) is equivalent to 10,000 times the force of the Left => No progress...

Added on April 30, 2008

This article says that this time mining, real estate and education lobbies are going to influence the elections unlike IT in 1999-2004

This article says that Lingayat and Vokkaliga fights have dominated in politics and now all major parties being split on either or both of them, it is Congress and JD(S) which is strong with support from Muslims, Dalits, OBC, Kuruba population. Dalits constitute 30% of population.

2 comments:

Ajit Kumar said...

Ajit Kumar(JSS) here: hey Anjan, you are missing out an imp point here, Central election is on the cards.75-90% chances are there of no one getting majority(again BJP will emerge as single largest party),in which case Kamaraswamy will become CM(even if they manage 30-40 seats) if they assure congress of supporting them in Central election. this again may cause ripples this time in Congress part's local leaders. Political Drama is 100% assured. we will have a great time...hehehe

RisingCitizen said...

Yes, you are true and that is why in my blog I mentioned that the triangulation traces still exist although it looks like a square contest between Congress and BJP.

The real test in the elections is the farm loan waiver. I want people to realize that it is the biggest fool making cruel joke done by Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh - who instead of trying to address the issue have worsened it.