Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Elections 2009: Who will form the next Govt?

We, as Indians, are truly living amidst an amazing political atmosphere. There was a time till early 1990 when the national parties dictated terms to regional parties. Today, things are very different. 2009 elections will specifically be known for a new trend of emerging regional party politics. For the first time, it is getting clearly visible that the mainstream parties - Congress and BJP have lost all major states from which maximum Lok Sabha seats are won - Maharashtra(48), Uttar Pradesh (80), Bihar (40), Tamil Nadu (39), West bengal (42) and to some extent Andhra Pradesh (42).

TOTAL: 291 and total seats is 543. which means more than 50%.

Yet the regional parties can't form any govt at the center without the support of either BJP or Congress. It is evident that the national parties have lost it but not totally out and they cant be totally out.

Parties like BSP (mayawati), AIADMK (Jayalalitha), DMK (Karunanidhi), JD-U (Nitish Kumar), BJD (Naveen Patnaik), TDP (Chandrababu Naidu), SP (mulayam Singh Yadav), Left parties (prakash karat) and many others continue to play a pivotal role. What should we call this scenario? Are regional parties ahead of these national parties in satisfying people's needs? Yes and no...both

It is an amazing permutations and combinations we are living amidst. Some parties which have joined Third Front can't align with BJP and some with Congress. It is just an aggregation. It will collapse on its own even before its formation. Just look at this.

In how many ways can a govt be formed?

Parties which cant go with Congress: BJD, JD(U), TDP, Praja Rajyam, Akali Dal, Shiv Sena, Praja Rajyam
Parties which cant go with BJP: Left, SP, National conference, JD(S), LJP, RJD, NCP
Parties which can swing either way: DMK, AIADMK, BSP,Trinamool,

The Third front is a formation of parties from all these 3 groups.

Look at the irony.

Tomorrow, if Congress led UPA forms the govt.(of course not on its own).Whom will they get support from? If they take Left's support the Third Fron collapses and Trinamool will get back to NDA. Then TDP, BJD all will have to go with NDA (all these are supposedly going to do well this time). This will increase NDA tally. However, Jayalalitha could change the scene depending on whom she will support. Obviously she cant join a formation where DMK is a part. In this case, she will come back to NDA. So, NDA becomes unstoppable.

However, if Left emerges strong along with BSP and TDp, then the Third Front will get considerable number of seats..but whose support can they take...They cant go with BJP...if they go with Congress, again Third Front will collapse because TDP cant go with Congress. If SP continues with Congress, then BSP can't support Congress. - In which case Mayawati will bargain with BJP.

Similary NCP and Shiv Sena. They can go together but not with Congress as Shiv Sena and Congress are dead enemies.

In such a situation what can change is either of the 2 parties getting individually more seats. The states where Congress and BJP are in direct contest include Rajasthan, Gujarat, MAdhya Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Chattisgarh. In these states whichever party gets the maximum holds the key to the govt.

Secondly, will the Left lose in West Bengal and Kerala? If yes, Congress is sure to form the next govt. If not, BJP is sure.

Thirdly, who will come back in Andhra Pradesh? If Congress, then it becomes unstoppable, but if it gets split between TDP and Congress, then BJP can surely think of forming the govt.

So, May 16th will be surely a day to watch and remember.


Prasad L said...

Whoever forms the government ...it will not last for more than a year! BTW you seem to get a lot of hits on your blog... pls share some tips

Anonymous said...

Not sure if your analysis of AP politics is totally correct.