Sunday, September 18, 2011

Modi v/s Rahul: Who would win?

It is 2011 and 2014 is 3 years away. In 3 years one never knows where the 2 parties - Congress and BJP would be? As of now, everyone thinks Congress will fail. Congress is too clever at political strategies before the election. They can throw surprises by announcing schemes, or programmes that will make them the hero of the media and the poor. One of the legislation - National Food Security Bill (though has several loop holes) can be Congress's trump card against corruption. It is another matter that this bill will cause incomparable increases in inflation causing further damage to Indian economy. 

3 years down the lane -  the media, the aam aadmi may forget all the movement led by Anna Hazare. Media  may project Congress as the only party to launch such a scheme that will bring down poverty in a single shot. People may forget all the corruption and scandals and think that Congress is still the savior. People may think that both BJP and the Congress stand the same with respect to corruption, but still support the Congress.

At present, why this issue of Modi v/s Rahul? It is very hilarious that a US report conducted by its think tank can cause such a reverberation in India. Modi's announcement of his Sadbhavana mission is being stretched too far by everyone. Neither BJP has projected Modi as its PM candidate and nor has Congress projected Rahul as its PM candidate. Still everyone is speculating that this will be the reality.


The ghost of 2002 never seems to leave Modi. The Supreme court has not found any strong evidence to file even an FIR against him, but it has some strong words for him. Still it has decided to hand over the case to courts in Gujarat. No one knows what the verdict would be. If the High Court proves him guilty, he is bound to have immense losses, but if not he will win handsomely.

If Modi indeed is proven guilty he will have to be punished and there can be no doubt about it. What I admire about Modi is not his character, but his governance. I have a series of articles collected from various national, international media and case studies from IIM Ahmedabad under Modi's governance in my blog.
More than anything else, read this report published by the US which states Gujarat is the best governed state in India followed by Bihar. One can never deny that Modi's rule has given the maximum progress to Gujarat that it leads far ahead than all states in India since 2004. Some people claim Gujarat is progressing for the rich. If that is the case, can anyone explain how is agriculture growing at 10% when the entire national average is 3%? Who is using the 1000 check dams constructed by the govt in Saurashtra (a drought prone zone a decade ago that is now fertile)? Who is benefiting from 24 hour electrification of more than 90% villages that have transformed the lives of farmers? No state has been able to achieve this - states ruled both ruled by BJP and Congress. Just look at the roads that exist in Gujarat. Gujarat is one of the only states in the country where ports are well connected to major cities in the state that has boosted maritime trade.

Some people including the Congress in Gujarat claims that doing business is in the DNA of the Gujarati and so Narendra Modi has not anything much. If that is the case then Gujarat must have been the number 1 state in India since 1947. There should not have been any poverty in the state. There should have been only rich people. No state can achieve progress without the government facilitating an atmosphere where businesses can thrive and farmers can progress. 

No one can forget what happened in 2002 and no one can ever let injustice happen to anyone. People often forget that Modi has been re-elected twice by the people. He has not become the CM through a military coup but through a free and fair election.

Some people have called 2002 riots a holocaust. Every communal riot is a holocaust. Even those which occurred during the Congress rule (This was in 60's and  70's when BJP did not even exist) . 


I frankly admit that if Rajiv Gandhi was alive today and stood for elections, I would have really wished him become the PM again. Manmohan Singh is far far better than Rahul Gandhi. Manmohan Singh may not take decisions at the right time, but he has a statesmanship approach when he wants to talk to his worst detractors. When the entire nation rose in support of Shri Anna Hazare (my hero these days), I expected Rahul Gandhi at least to come out and say that he would convince his party and the government that the voice of the youth will be heard and Anna Hazare's peaceful protest shall be respected. Where was Rahul Gandhi when Kapil Sibal and P.Chidambaram decided to arrest Anna? Where was Rahul Gandhi when the entire Parliament was discussing the issue of Lok pal bill? I salute Pranab Mukherjee who stole the show from the Congress side in Parliament. An old Pranab was far capable and convincing than a young Rahul who was absent. My biggest problem with Rahul is that when the time arose that India needed leadership from the side of the Congress he let everyone down.

The Reality: Congress still has a higher chance of winning in 2014 than the BJP. 

The big strategy which BJP has to adopt is not to declare anyone as its PM candidate (more so that of Modi). This was the same strategy which Congress adopted in 2004.

Let's not forget that Congress still has a presence in almost every state unlike the BJP. If Modi is projected as the PM candidate, the chances are that several allies may desert the BJP because of a fear of loss of vote banks. In that situation BJP has to win around 200 seats on their own which seems highly impossible. So either way it is a tough road ahead for the main opposition party if it projects Mr. Modi as the PM.

People are the ultimate deciders of the 2014 election, but people must exercise enormous caution specially now that India is one of the rising economic powers of the world. The challenges and complexities are high and we need a leader who has proven something and not just talked. We need a leader who can rise to the occasion and take tough measures and decisions to take the entire society on the path  of growth. We cannot be slow and steady, but fast and tough.


pravms said...

Excellent article, Anjan!!!

Amit (jss) said...

nice one anjan.... i too am undecided as to which corrupt leader to choose... but I would prefer one who inspite of being corrupt, leads to nations progress...

tris91 said...

hmm... interesting thoughts... though you must understand Rahul Gandhi does not have full power still in the Congress not yet and this is because he is not willing yet to take a full control over the senior members yet.
As for Modi verdict or no verdict the ghost of the Gujarat roits will always hang over him.