Monday, June 9, 2008

How Chiranjeevi holds the key to the next PM of the country

At the outset, Megastar Chiranjeevi requires no introduction and has forayed into the dirty world of politics. His influence is almost equal to that of NTR during 1980's. It's 20 years now from that period but the political space once occupied by NTR is now going to be filled by Chiranjeevi. It is no surprise that his entry comes at a point when the political landscape is under turmoil. If you remember Mahabharath, Ghatotgacha's entry was heavy in terms of management both to Pandavas and Kauravas. His timing was such that 2 warriors of equal calibre - Karan and Arjun who were fighting in opposite camps were at the helm of the affairs.

Now that Chiranjeevi(as Ghatotgacha) has entered Andhra politics, it has sent shivers to both Chandrababu Naidu and Y.S Rajashekar Reddy(ruling CM) - I leave it to the reader as to who should be called Arjun and Karan (if at all they fit to be put in such great character). The state of Andhra is going to witness a churning next year. Everyone is busy cozying up with him as he holds the fortunes of not just the state, but the entire nation. If he aligns with Congress, then Congress will have its rule at the Center. If he aligns with BJP, Advani is sure to become the next PM. If he aligns with the Left, he ruins the prospect of any one alliance - NDA or UPA(without Left party) coming to power.

Such is the power of Chiranjeevi. How? Let's look at 2004. Andhra gives 42 Lok Sabha seats of which TDP won just 5 (a humiliating defeat) while Congress and TRS put together won 34 seats - a huge swing. These 42 seats spoiled Vajpayee's chances of his fourth time PM. Now if Chiranjeevi comes, he is going to spoil both Chandrababu Naidu's prospects and Congress prospects. Initally Chiranjeevi showed an incline towards the Left (I am terribly upset with Chiranjeevi over this.. he is very politically insensitive and naive is a clear indication of this step). Later, he backtracked and is now planning to stand independent. This is going to lead to a road nowhere. If he joins neither Congress nor TDP, but BJP or aligns with them, then Naidu has no choice but to accept BJP and then no one can stop BJP from power in Delhi. However, if he stands independent and says won't align, then the chances of a hung parliament is sure. If Naidu accepts Chiranjeevi, then Naidu cannot become CM. This will not happen as Naidu cannot accept any other post.

Thus, to improve matters, both Y.S Reddy (ruling CM) and Venkaih Naidu (BJP spokesperson) are carrying out diplomatic relations with him.

One has to see how Chiranjeevi will shift his strategy. Whom will he lean towards? One thing is sure - he holds the key to the next PM in the country.

If this prediction goes wrong and say Chiranjeevi's influence ends up like that of Vijaykanth in TamilNadu - a scenario extremely rare and impossible, then the whole analysis shall go wrong. I am sure about one thing. Chiranjeevi is highly influential amongst the poor, lower class/caste people. Hence, it will turn out to be a second NTR phenomenon in the country and Andhra.

Let's not forget that Andhra, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal only can solve the puzzle of the next Lok Sabha elections. Clearly, no party is going to win single handedly. The only next player to wield this type of influence is Mayawati. So, mayawati and chiranjeevi - both will decide the fate of PM gaddi if Maywati's BSP wins greater than 50% seats(i.e 40 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats) in UP.

So, is Chiranjeevi truly going to be a megastar deciding the fate of Advani and Rahul Gandhi?

1 comment:

Ajitkumar said...

Well you are missing out one point here. Balakrishna and Chiranjeevi are dead against. with naidu having balakrishna beside him, no where there arises a situation where Chirajeevi alligns with naidu. so BJP will then have to decide wether to go with naidu or chiru. 90% chances are there that BJP with shake hands with Naidu only.