Why BJP's loss was so obvious in Karnataka 2013 election

It's been a month now that Karnataka elections resulted in Congress coming to power. While Congress was very happy there was nothing to cheer about for the party itself. What was good was that BJP was voted out. BJP in its truest sense became a party just like Congress or even worse when it came to Karnataka.  Going by its own standards this was the worst government BJP ever gave. BJP had become so corrupt in the state that it was beyond recognition that it was the very party that was swept to power for it to be given a chance. The chance was greatly misused. Thousands of crores of corruption in mining scams in Bellary (close to 50,000 crores), the monopoly of Reddy brothers over the government, the bribery cases of Operation Kamala - all were recipes for disaster. One could not imagine BJP falling to these levels in a state where it first formed the government. Usually it takes at least one term for a party to become corrupt but BJP in Karnataka proved that no matter when given a chance it will show it will become truly corrupt. The extent to which Yediyurappa stole crores of rupees from the state exchequer was a glaring example of monumental corruption the head of the state can do. 

BJP's weak action against moral policing organizations's high handedness in Mangalore was not just inhumane but completely void of logic and sense. Sri Ram Sene attacks on pubs in 2009 and Hindu Jagarna Vedike attacks on the homestays were the heights of moral policing. Despite its claim that it doesn't associate or affiliate with such organizations it did not take any action. The whole Mangalore area clearly voted out BJP because of these acts. When I looked at the videos it just touched me and was just too brutal. I don't know how many inhumane things happen everyday in our country. We truly have lost the right to be calling ourselves a civilized society. 

BJP's weak record was so sharp that Congress did not have to do any hard work. Even if they had not campaigned they would have swept to power. In a way what is good is that JD(S) is out from controlling the government since the mercurial Deve Gowda can only bring in havoc for everything. Karnataka faces many challenges because of the lost decade since S.M.Krishna exited. It is far beyond in solving electricity and water problems. Water problems has become so acute in Bangalore that almost all parts have begun to feel it. The groundwater is used so extensively and there is no scope for water to recharge it. Congress in Karnataka is no good either but given a majority there is hope.

There are so many challenges before the new CM Siddaramaih. if he acts tough against non-doers people will vote him back again if not God knows the fate in the next election. 

People voted out BJP because the party led by Yediyurappa had tarnished its own party at the center and the people in the state so badly that they wanted to give a befitting reply and they did. BJP in the center is not same as BJP in states and Congress doesn't exist in states and is weak at the center. Remove Sonia Gandhi and you will see Congress fall like a deck of cards.Ironically if Sonia Gandhi binds the Congress it is her NAC which is spelling doom for the country. The deafening silence of PM is better to be left to itself for explanation.

If BJP can be voted out for corruption in Karnataka will Congress be voted out in Center next year? If the answer is "no" it only indicates how biased are our people in having 2 yardsticks for measuring a govt's performance. Congress record in UPA - II is so bad that every day there are scams and no one wants to take accountability. The way CBI was misused as spelled by the Supreme Court clearly shows how it has become a norm to keep quiet after corruption for Congress party.

There is another thing to notice as well. Both Modi and Rahul did not do any wonders and their impact on the state was zero. Te fact is Karnataka people wanted to vote on local issues and not national ones. Karnataka has the history of voting differently when it comes to state and center. Let's hope that it happens this time too.

Remember that a leader makes a party and party's ideology is not all relevant in Indian politics. If there is a credible face people will vote without caring for party's ideology. Given that fact Congress in the Center is leaderless and BJP doesn't want to have anoint a leader even though it has one - People will have to vote whichever carries a tough decisive leader.

I hope Karnataka sees good days given the fact that Siddaramaih is made the CM.

Who is a better leader? Modi or Rahul?

Media is obsessed with comparing the 2 future PM candidates from Congress and BJP even though both parties haven't officially declared them as the candidates.

However, every day there are many articles written and published about good and bad characteristics of these personalities.

In my assessment, any day, comparing the two, Modi comes out stronger and more fit for the post. Rahul is sincere, clean but very amateurish. When you hear Rahul he portrays himself to be more philosophical, less substantial in content and weak. He doesn't carry any baggage as per many, but according to me he does. He has been in power with his mother for 9 years now, but yet he doesn't speak out his mind. What he thinks about the existing problems, solutions he wants to implement and most importantly his control over his party - all are deep mysteries. 9 years is a long time for such mysteries to remain so. Recently, he gave a speech to Industries and it was a philosophical speech. Why despite being  9 years in power the philosophy hasn't been converted into reality? It's a simple question a common man must ask. This current government has faced enough crises and put the country into enough crises and no where Rahul has been visible. Chidambaram appears to be the only tough leader in the government who takes tough decisions and implements them. He doesn't depend upon anyone and neither does we wait after taking a decision.

How long can this country wait for undecisive leaders to continue? Whenever our country has seen tough leaders it has progressed. Toughness may or may not co-exist with corruption. Narasimha Rao was corrupt but was very tough. Vajpayee was tough and non-corrupt. Indira Gandhi was tough and had corruption baggage. Manmohan is neither corrupt nor tough. The time has come for tough leaders not just sincere ones.

Modi comes with 15 years of experience. Experience where he has led, where he has implemented tough decisions, taken out of box solutions to the ground. He neither exhausts himself nor reduces his stamina when it comes to saying what he has or wants to do to address problems.

Lot of people think industries are mushrooming but farmers are not under Modi. If that was the case what explains the growth of agriculture. Look at some of things Gujarat has seen. Check dams are built that replenish ground water tables, soil health cards are given to farmers that accurately help them know what to grow and when to grow (leading to very less crop failures), contract farming, continuous water supply, allowing farmers to sell produce directly to buyers saving costs on transportation and enduring physical pain. This is not what I am speaking. Here is an article from Forbes that proves this. Here's another business article that explains that even dry areas have become rich and arid land is no longer an inhibitor.

Here are some startling stats: (As of 2013) (Source)

• Drip Irrigation Area:  Increased from 12,00 hectares to 7 lakh hectares
• Cultivable land: Increased from 108 lakh hectares to 148 lakh hectares
• Horticulture production: 350% growth through crop diversification
• Milk production: 85% increase due to animal hospitals, better animal care, eradication of 122 cattle diseases
• Water: 6,50,000 water harvesting structures that help retain water and let it reach underground so that recharging takes place. Without this recharging there cannot be water recycling.
• 75% Gujarat has pipeline/water connection unlike India's 30%  - HERE"S UNICEF WEBSITE TALKING ABOUT THIS. - a mechanism by which amount of fluoride, nitrate, salt content has reduced making water truly drinkable.
• On its way to implement largest water grid in the country
• Gujarat uses 85% surface water and only 15% underground water whereas in Bangalore underground water has become the only source of water.
• Institutional baby delivery has increased from 45% to 95% (2005-2012)
• Here's UNITED NATIONS WEBSITE DESCRIBING use of technology to address common man's problems through CISCO developed SWAGAT mechanism where all districts, sub-district offices are connected using video conferencing directly interacting with Modi. Here's Indian express article confirming the same.
• 2800 km statewide Natural Gas grid helping industries.

Aren't these farmers common people, poor people? Isn't this an inclusive growth? Which state in India has these many programs being strictly and regularly implemented for farmers?

Each time Modi keeps telling "minimum government maximum governance" and that is what he has implemented in Gujarat. It is very true that just having a government doesn't help anyone, but a government that delivers governance can make all the difference. We keep talking about GDP. Newspapers are flooded with articles explaining Bihar is growing faster than Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh is growing faster than Gujarat and so forth. But GDP is not just numbers. GDP is true growth with respect to roads, electricity, water and initiatives taken that go beyond just solving problems. How many villages in India have electricity? According to an article there are still about 80,000 villages without it. However, Gujarat's 18,000 villages have continuous, uninterrupted electrcity. Not only that Modi has ensured that Gujarat becomes surplus in electricity but also ensured the same is exported the same to other states. Not only does Gujarat lead the solar energy production, it accounts for nearly 80% solar energy production in India. So, there is not only an emphasis on current electricity, but its future. Now, all government offices have been asked to have solar panels and very soon they can transfer this to the grid. Just think of this. Farmers in almost states struggle to get electricity, while in Gujarat they do not.  Here's CNN-IBN article on the same.

Now, coming to roads. The Planning commission headed by Congress itself has praised Gujarat's roads. World Bank's own report confirms that Gujarat has 20,000km of district roads and 16,000 km of highways and all roads are close to international standards. While Mumbai still suffers roads with potholes as like any other major city, Gujarat is not like that. Gujarat has lot more well planned and well implemented district roads connecting all villages.

Aren't roads, electricity, water - symbols of progress that reach every section, religion and caste of the society? 

Here's a well known journalist Madhu Kishwar who wanted to do a reality check in Gujarat and conclude if it is just hype and she wrote a well documented article which can be read here.

Gujarat stills lags behind several parameters in Human Development Indices. However, it is important to note that the number of development initiatives visible from the ground are far more than any other state.

I do not intend to go on writing more than these 3 basic things in this article. But these basic things are so much lacking in most parts of India. We have a highways revolution, airways revolution but electricity and water revolution are far from reality. Should we wait for another 100 years to see these or allow Gujarat's model to be replicated across the country.

One thing is for sure. It may be misfortune for India not to see this leader head the country, but Gujarat will continue to be fortunate to see unseen heights of glory. Gujarat will soon be the only state that can compete with China and its growth. 

Asia's 2nd longest railway tunnel opens in Kashmir

This is the 3rd article in the series of railway connectivity between Kashmir and rest of India. In my earlier 2 (Article 1 and Article 2) articles I had written about the various stretches of Kashmir rail link that were completed and in completion. This 3rd article now is about the railway connectivity between Qazigund and Banihal.

Even after 65 years of our independence, Kashmir is not completely connected to India on the railway map. Now, we are very close to its completion except the stretch between Katra and Qazigund. The stretch between Katra and Qazigund is the toughest project Indian Railways has ever executed. The formidable Himalayan terrain presents never before seen challenge of having a railway track on the mountains. This is something Switzerland has quite remarkably done it.

If you observe in the pic above, Jammu was connected to India long back through train. Jammu-Udhampur, Qazigund-Srinagar-Baramulla railway tracks were made operational 3 years ago. The only stretch remaining is Udhampur-Qazigund. This stretch of the entire project is very challenging because of the terrain. It's highly mountainous and snow covered for almost 4 months of a year. Despite these hurdles and bureaucratic delays Banihal-Qazigund rail link successfully was run on a trial basis. This will open to public later this year and so the Udhampur Katra section.

This would facilitate 8 million pilgrims who travel to Vaishnov Devi (located in Katra) via train instead of road via Jammu. This shrine is the 2nd largest visited shrine after Tirupati. I have visited this shrine 3 times and each time the place mesmerized me. Once this train link opens in April this year (hopefully opens so) people can travel from any part of India to Katra via train. This will boost tourism and generate huge revenues.

The Banihal-Qazigund tunnel is the 2nd longest in Asia and longest in India. (Top 10 longest tunnels in india are given here). This train tunnel is an engineering feat by itself because the tunnel is 11.21 km and passes through PIR PANJAL mountain range which is one of the most rugged terrain.

Banihal - Qazigund total stretch = 17 km

The railway tunnel passing through Pir Panjal = 11.21 km (so, nearly 64% of the total 17 km travel between Banihal-Qazigund is via tunnels).

The impact on travel time of this train through tunnel:

By road Qazigund-Banihal is 35 km and it takes an hour by road passing through Jawahar tunnel. I have gone on this road and although it is meant to be all-weather road it is not so. Constant traffic jams and closure in winter due to snow is a common aspect throughout the year. With this train it reduces the distance to 17 km and time taken is not more than 6 min.

The world's highest railway bridge to be operational in 2016?

As mentioned earlier the Chenab river bridge that would connect Katra and Qazigund will be the world's highest railway bridge(1056 feet height and 1509 feet in width). The trains would be able to cruise at 100 km/hr.

Supposedly this bridge would have a lifespan of 120 years and would be resistant to blast and seismic disturbances. This is being executed by Konkan Railways. Konkan Railways has had a good reputation of executing toughest projects. 

What about North East India?

While other parts of the country are connected by train the north east isn't. Even today it is still a distant dream.

What about high speed trains and newer technology in trains?

Until Indian Railways is run like a government organization no high speeds and presence of newer technology can exist. Although Indian Railways has formed a separate ministry called National High Speed Railway Authority nothing has happened since then. Often bureaucratic committees go very slow and inhibit serious progress. It took 8 years to transform the picture of Highways scene mainly because of private participation and competition amongst different bidders. The Railways has not been fortunate to be so.

The highest speed we have been able to achieve is close to 150 km/hr while Chinese trains run more than 300 km/hr. We don't have to match 300 km/hr speed but if we build our trains that can run at least at 200 km/hr we would have achieved a big deal. Most importantly it is the railway stations and the maintenance of it that need a big overhaul. In this regard, seriously there is no initiative yet taken. People also are to be blamed for its pathetic maintenance. Even today simple things like LCD screens are absent.  The best parts of our railways include cheaper fares, extremely good connectivity to different parts of  the country, good food and many more.

In the new budget Railways introduced "Anubhuti" a new luxury train that is not as expensive as "Palace on wheels"  and not so cheap as 1st class Shatabdi trains....but what if at least some of these can be added to normal A/c coaches?

The unsafe woman in India

It gives me no pleasure but pain, anger and shame while writing this article. The woman in India is not safe anymore. The ancient narrow mindset about woman is so predominant that the attitude towards them hasn't changed that much. The Dec 16th brutal gang rape is so unnerving that when I read it sent shivers down my spine. The pain that woman would have experienced can't even be expressed.

It makes me so pitiful and painful looking at the statistics about rape in India. In 1973, 2919 rapes were reported while in 2010 the number was 20262. This is about 800 % increase. As we are growing economically it looks we are shrinking socially.

It is so tragic that the very country where the mantra -"Yatra Naryastu pujyante ramante tatra devata" originated (this means Gods reside where a woman is worshipped or respected), the very country where woman is considered the harbinger of prosperity, where wealth, knowledge, wisdom, beauty and love have all been personified as woman - is struggling, suffering and relentlessly experiencing different kinds of torments and taunts every day. Indian society is not new to rape. It has happened over centuries in India but at least after we became independent this crime ought to have decreased.

We mince no words in telling to the whole world we are a nation where culture originated. No country in the world has a culture like we do have. We always feel we are more civilized than others. What sort of culture is it where woman gets raped like this? What sort of culture is this where some men get to such worst and heinous levels even beasts do not? What sort of civilization are we a part of where such thugs and unscrupulous elements co exist? The Dec 16th case is clearly one of the most touching and brutal events. 

The lust and cowardice in these men involving in these acts are an insult to life, freedom and love. They have shown they have the highest bestiality in them. No animals behave the way these humans have. These men don't even think about what life the woman would lead after the incident. This is happening across the country and no political party - Congress, BJP or others have shown even tough measure to deal with it. Look at the rape map as given by Wall Street Journal.

It is equally senseless when politicians from different political parties start making such narrow comments -"Woman wear skirts, so this problem occurs", "Whenever Sita crosses the lakshman rekha she is going to suffer for it", "The WEST is making woman do this", "woman should not step out with boyfriends" and other such absurd statements. They have no rights to talk about life leave alone woman. They act as though they are the guardians of the society and custodians of our culture. Where were they when these acts happened?

The main problems and/or solutions to the same are highlighted below:

Attitude of society towards women:

Women being treated with respect for what they are and giving them their personal space is very important. Treating them as objects of just lust, considering and treating them as inferior are mindsets that must change. This is the toughest part and I don't easily see changing even in another 100 years. While freedoms cannot be given in excess to both men and women, respecting each others gender is absolutely necessary. 

I don't know how many goddesses are worshiped and celebrated everyday. What is the use of blindly doing it when the woman in the country cannot be made safe? What is the point of worshiping goddess and then have female foeticide spread everywhere in the country? It is no surprise that women nurses, women doctors are involved in abortion if bribed. This was revealed on Aamir Khan's Satyameva Jayate. (Watch the video here).

Such women may boldly talk and spread Indian culture but they are black mark on the country, medical system, their parents and last but not the least - "Life". . How could women do this to their own gender? It is even worse and inhumane. 

There are women who in their own family when their daughters are incest-ed  molested or raped are asked to keep quiet since it would be detrimental to the family's respect. Such women and their thinking makes domestic violence and rape even more under reported. They have to come open and report them.

Go across the country and you will find how women are looked at. Here is the detailed article. As you read this you may be shaken. In India, particularly, woman suffers before and after she is born.

These women who are going through these tortures are not specifically belonging to any religion, class or creed. Dalit, Muslim, middle class Hindu, minor - all have become victims.

Rape is often treated as shame and not as a violent crime. This very attitude makes people weak and then they hesitate to report.

The desperation with which some men can behave like this implies that moral values are bankrupt in them. We as a society are somehow responsible for allowing this to continue.

Change in Law:

Speedy trials are need of the hour. Fast track courts are absolutely required that enable hearings everyday and cases be disposed soon. However, we have to note that public pressure that was exerted for Dec 16th doesn't always exist. If the convicts were from a rich family or influential family we would have not seen this much progress at all as much we are seeing now. So, clearly the law condition is so bad that if you are poor and innocent you can be forced to plead guilty and if you are poor and guilty you will be quickly punished. 

The law or the law system doesn't instill any fear. Since it does not it breeds more criminals and they get away with it.

It is also true that if police is given sweeping powers to execute the rapists without a fair trial you never know innocent men can also become victims. If the victim is innocent, hails from a poor or non-influential background he can be made to confess forcibly and a fair trial is very much required. 

As it is found in 99% of cases, inadequate police force, gender insensitive cops often make the case worse or close the case without proper justice. Women police officers are very few and often they don't handle these cases. 

Women helplines are now introduced. This is a welcome step. Initially they were reports that this line never worked, calls were not being answered or continuously transferred but post Dec 31 there has been a steady increase in calls. The article here explains some interesting statistics on the same. The number is 181 (delhi)

Here is the link from which the image is taken

Even after Home Minster announced that streets will be patrolled more, nothing on the ground seems to change. There are many areas unlit, remote as was reported by the special team of india today. Click here

These videos will shock at the utter carelessness of the police and how they openly violate the very statement the home minister had made. Here is AAJ TAK's exclusive video (Click here)

So, it is very clear that accountability and sincerity lacks in so many police officials despite many orders from their governments.

We might have good laws, but not their good implementation.

Here's what Justice Verma submitted after his analysis to the Government.

Self Defence:

Women must be made to learn, practice self defense such as karate and other martial arts so that they can defend themselves. These days lot of women are taking these and training themselves. It is high time this happens.

People pressure:

People pressure like the one that happened post Dec 16th must continue to happen. When it happens it puts pressure on the system to swiftly act. Because people acted the ministries (Law, Home, Police) all had to act and show something. As of now the case is proceeding in the right direction. Hope justice is given to the victim. Even the Chief Justice of India remarked that he wished he could participate in the protests which the government manhandled it and lost the plot completely.

We face far danger and long term threat from the psyche of our own people than terrorists across the border. A corrupt society may be palatable but a society unsafe for women is totally unacceptable.

In short, I feel we really have no solution that can work over a long time except that women learn to self defend themselves. This sad state of our society is a huge hindrance to our social freedom. We may mint more money, build more roads, newer trains, airports, export more IT services - but we are too far from being a safe society.

Parliament passes new legislations on retail, banking and companies

For 2 years in a row the current UPA government has been sitting inactive and did not carry out any economic reforms or social reforms. Hundreds of media articles including TIME magazine had dubbed Manmohan Singh as "Under-Achiever". Worried by it the PM suddenly announced FDI in retail would be tabled in the Winter session to have it passed. The PM was under severe pressure. On one hand the world economy, particularly the US wanted speedy reforms and allow companies like Walmart to enter India on their own. On the other hand Sonia Gandhi wanted the Food Security Act to be passed. There is simply no money for that kind of welfare measure. P. Chidamabaram ever since took over the Finance Ministry has been seriously working to get the economy on track. It is precisely him who forced the PM to act.

Consequently, the Govt got very serious and wanted the Winter session to pass key legislations. So, with great guts and courage 3 major legislations were passed which will see tremendous effects in the next 4-5 years.

FDI In Retail:

Despite BJP's opposition the Congress got the bill passed due to Mayawati and Mulayam. No one knows what kind of deals were struck with those 2 M's to get their support. They criticize the Congress in public, fight elections against them, call them their enemies and support them in private. As long as these 2 M's continue like this Congress can get any bill passed.

FDI in Retail has clearly divided India especially middle class businessmen. However, both the proponents and opponents have no concrete evidence of their claims. Hence, there is nothing wrong in allowing these foreign companies. Since the clause restricts them to be set up in cities with a set population and above and the fact 30% of their produce must be sourced locally is a good clause to allay many fears. Eventually, business is business. These businesses will take 1-2 years to set up their stores and it will take another 3-4 years to see their effects on the flow of money and the fear which the opponents feel. If the businesses make no profit or find it very expensive they will shut down and go. The government took a daring risk to get the bill passed.

For more on the effects of this bill, read my previous articles on FDI in retail

Banking Laws:

The country faces a case of "under-banking". Despite around 40 banks (public and private) banking penetration is very low. The fact that the Govt plans to start Aadhar related direct cash transfer has created a case where more banking is needed. There are several corporate entities who want to get into banking industry but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was not ready to issue any licenses. It is too risky for RBI to issue bank licenses without a thorough background check and the current law prevents them and restricts them to do so. In the wake of global economic crisis the RBI got even more cautious in this regard and wanted the Govt to get a tougher bill passed. So, the Government joined hands with BJP and the Parliamentary Committee studied and drafted the law. The bill was finally passed with BJP's help.

The salient features of this law which will change the banking industry in the next 2-3 years include (Source1, Source2:

• RBI gets rights to check/audit the financial records of companies entering the banking sector so it is easy to issue licenses.
• RBI gets powers to take over the bank's board in case there is any fraud/loss of money. As an example Global trust bank merged with Oriental bank since RBI could not find takeover.
• Now non-banking companies or corporate entities can enter banks.
• Allow foreign banks to invest in India and convert their Indian operations into subsidiary  The Bill will allow foreign banks to convert their Indian operations into local subsidiaries or transfer shareholding to a holding company of the bank without paying stamp duty. Under current laws, they have to pay 20 to 30 per cent tax as capital gains and stamp duty when transferring branches to a new legal entity. Foreign banks now operate in India by setting up branches (all foreign banks together have about 400 branches in India).
• Competition commission of India (CCI) will now look at mergers and acquisitions and can look into banking as well while RBI is the sole regulator yet. It is now easy to merge and acquire companies and hence several smaller banks may be acquired by bigger ones if the smaller have operations in rural areas where they have a good presence. So, setting up of banks in such areas may be expensive and merging may be more attractive.
• The minimum capital requirement and guidelines for setting up new banks are still to be notified by the central bank. (Source)

These are some of the salient features. The bill in its nature has been welcomed by RBI and the corporate entities who want to venture into banking. Hopefully this will lead to more mergers and acquisitions leading to even better customer service and competition.

Companies Law 2011 replacing Companies Act, 1956:

It is indeed very surprising that the companies bill was lying pending since many years and several economists had wanted a law that is contemporary and in tune with the current trends of the economy. Some of the salient features of this bill include (Source1 and Source 2):

• The concept of "One man company". This means one person can start his/her own company and such a one-man company can be truly called a "company" and not mere proprietorship. Till now minimum 2 people were required to form a company. This would enable more individuals to start their own company.
• All companies will have a common financial year - April-March
• Companies whose net worth is Rs.500 crore or more or a turnover of Rs.1000 crore or more must dedicate Rs.5 crore to social responsibility which is development of  their local area. Failing to do so must be explained and recorded. The bill makes it mandatory so that companies to their bit to help society.
• Gives more powers to independent directors (1/3rd of a company's board should have independent directors who can be on a rotational basis and must be paid only sitting fees and no other remuneration)
• A director can get only max upto 5% of company's net profit. Interestingly such a clause will help that the director cannot take a whole lot of profits with him.
• If a company winds up then it must pay 2 years salary to its employees
• To monitor fraud serious powers have been given to Serious Fraud investigation Office (SFIO) by the Central Govt.
• Just like in US and UK class action suits are now a reality in India.

A lot of economic experts, industrialists have welcomed the Act since it helps in making the working of companies more transparent and accountable. Besides this was due for almost 5 decades.

The country needs even more aggressive economic laws and social laws. If the Govt woke up early and had swung into action many more laws could have seen the light. Land Acquisition Bill, Direct Tax Code, Goods and Services Tax are pending laws and the sooner these get implemented the better for the economy.

Definitely the economic experts in Parliamentary Standing Committee have done a good job in drafting these bills.

Hope the sense prevails and the Parliament passes more bills. Keep up Mr. Chidambaram..!!

PM launches Aadhar based direct cash transfer system

Battled by corruption on all fronts, PM Singh inaugurated the scheme to do a direct cash transfer system to the intended beneficiaries directly through bank accounts linked to the AADHAR number. This scheme is good and is a good step in the direction to plug corruption at various levels. However, it is still not passed as a  Legislation. The Parliamentary committee has objections, concerns that have not been addressed. The govt's announcement of the scheme leaves behind several questions unanswered.

Many of the concerns/questions are raised even in my previous 3 articles listed here - Article1, Article2, Article3.

As of 2012, 20 crore people people have got AADHAR numbers and 40 crore are left as against the target set for 2014. The system and its officials are making their presence felt in many villages and cities. Poor people are specially thrilled and are going out in large numbers to get the number. Here is the website (click) that gives all the information on how to enroll, what documents are needed and what the process is.

Image courtesy: source

The Govt wants to show that it wants to do something. However, no one is sure how this system will transform the problem of corruption. India's corruption is at different levels and this kind of a system will be a game changer for sure only if correctly implemented.

The media doesn't scrutinize effectively enough. How many Indians know that the experiment of Aadhar enabled wage pay under Rural Employment Guarantee system is facing difficult problems for which no effective solution has been found? Unless found the scheme should not be extended to the entire country. 

Here are some of them:

1) The system requires that a bank account opened by a person who has AADHAR must be interlinked. So, just because you have AADHAR number will not enable you and just because you have a bank account won't enable you to receive payments. Is this effectively communicated since large number of people would not understand? In Jharkhand, this created a major problem since people who had to open a bank account had to travel 10 km away. The role of Banking Correspondents (BC) carrying portable devices that can communicate with the bank servers is not foolproof system and has failed in many places. So, how does AADHAR address this issue?

2) In several places where the internet connectivity is either unavailable or unreliable is a major issue. This did not allow the verification systems to work properly with authentication servers.

3) Fingerprint recognition issues made many legitimate recipients not receive the money. Given the fact that most laborers may not have the right finger prints due to excessive labor what other mechanism should be adopted to verify? Are the guidelines that are laid being correctly followed everywhere the system is put in place?

4) How correctly can you identify the recipient is indeed the intended beneficiary? For a scheme like Rural Employment it might be easy since the person who is going to work needs would have his name registered and must be working for a certain set of hours. While making the payment his name must be associated with AADHAR number that the recipient must carry while validating/authenticating himself. This may be fairly accurate but how does government plan to transfer food via PDS (Public Distributed System) ? Clearly, as per UIDAI AADHAR number cannot tell you if you are an intended recipient of a particular service, but only verify that you are what you say. So, say a person A who is not a legitimate recipient of subsidized kerosene but has an ADHAR number registers in the government records as the beneficiary of subsidized kerosene Then person A continues to receive the benefit if he submits AADHAR details. So, even before AADHAR comes into play the very system which will contact AADHAR must be accurate. Has the government done or doing anything in this regard? Unfortunately, no. So, can this system be a game changer then?

5) It has come to the attention that several hundreds of AADHAR cards are lying in the government offices gathering dust and yet have not reached the concerned people (Source) This is mainly because of fake addresses.

Say, the UIDAI addresses all these issues. However, until issue 4) is resolved this system cannot help in plugging leakages.

Let us not forget in Jharkhand where the system was first tested proved to be very effective at least with respect to people who received their wages. It was quick, fast, instant and no middle man was involved. So, they did not bribe any official to get their money. This is truly the result that is expected and is indeed the spirit with which Mr. Nilekani is working. 

So, when Arvind Kejriwal talks about an effective law people must realize that it is one part of the solution. The other part is clearly eliminating as much as possible middle men who eat away the money before it reaches the intended recipient.

Why does India face power cuts?

Every man on the streets of India - urban and rural - will say they face power cuts everyday. The number of hours may vary based on state and city. Gujarat probably is the only state which is surplus in power and and its residents hardly face power cuts both at urban and rural level. So, what is different? Why can't the entire country have the same picture? The article below explores our major problems, solutions and illustrates a shining example of Gujarat which needs to be replicated across each state.

Until early 2000 there was no interconnected grid (interconnection of power sub stations and transmission lines). Each state had its own network. The early 2000 saw the reality of a power grid that connected North, South, East, West and North East. The state owned POWER GRID runs this and is 95,000 km long. The reason the grid was established was that the grid would enable power to be given to states which are in deficit so that there is a balance. While the Southern Grid is itself not connected to the remaining 4, all the remaining 4 are interconnected. The North, West, East and North East grids supplied electricity to the respective states and the basic condition of such a grid was that no state would draw more than it proposed as excess withdrawal or excess addition would cause the entire grid to fail. Every day each state that uses this grid will submit a projected daily usage a day before its usage for every 15 min. This would enable the Power Grid to balance the supply accordingly. Despite this check Uttar Pradesh (as per news reports) drew more electricity than projected on July 30 and 31st 2012. Despite a heavy fine established on any state that overdraws the power  one of the states did it causing a mass outage in NORTH, EAST, NORTH EASTERN parts of the GRID. The Western Grid took quick action and so was spared. The Southern Grid was not affected anyways.

July 30th and 31st 2012 when there was massive power outage in Western, Northern and Eastern India for 2 consecutive days - is a shame on rising India. Mainly because one of the states overdrew more power in the grid causing imbalance and electricity grid tripping. This was so bad that airports, railways, metros, hospitals, clinics, industries everything was crippled, paralyzed and came to a COMPLETE HALT without electricity. 

• 600 million people were without electricity - a population double the United States.
• 18 states affected at the same time.

Let's get to some quick stats: The source of electricity and their % contribution to power grid are as follows:

(Click here for Source:)

Total Installed capacity: 205.34 Giga Watt (GW)

Between 2007-2012 we added only 78,000 MW while China added 4* 78,000 MW. What a difference!!!

1/3rd Indian population - has no electricity - (300 million)

Losses due to power thefts and distribution - 20-32% with world's average 15%

Net shortfall - 10%. This is huge since India's demands have far outgrown the actual generation/availability.

The contribution of coal to electricity generation in China is 77% while 56% in India. China may be polluting more but it has massive wind and solar power generating capacity, only next to USA. India has only 12% of total electricity coming from wind+ solar combined.

Clearly our problems (and solutions) are:

a) Coal power generation has not increased since coal is not being properly utilized and exploited despite   its abundant supply. Many coal projects have got struck in environmental clearances, several of them have been scrapped since the COAL SCAM erupted under our very own PM - Manmohan Singh. Coal India which owns almost 80% of coal has to sell in the market at 70% discount prices just to have the subsidy going (Source). It's a blunder and Coal India neither can invest in natural gas nor increase its production.  Government needs to break up Coal India, involve private sector in production and distribution. Let us have an independent regulator for this rather than depending upon Government's intervention.

b) There is no exponential increase in contribution from Renewable sources like wind and solar. Solar is the easiest since 360 days of the year we have solar energy. Yes, one good thing the current government has done is to launch National Solar Mission which has framed policies for solar investment. However, not everywhere one is ready to invest. The government needs to provide incentives  for local manufacturers to come with the hardware so that the investors can depend upon them with trust. It is shocking that within 3 years we added only 1000MW of electricity through solar power by using parts made in US because they get that at a cheaper interest rate(3%) unlike banks in India (14%). Clearly this is the sector that the government needs to strongly push for competition so that solar projects come up everywhere. This is the best way to increase electricity generation.

c) Our transmission and distribution losses are immense causing a lot of scarcity due to inefficiency and there is power theft at the consumer level. Many of them connect their power lines directly to distribution line and makes them unaccountable for the same. Take a look at the streets of Delhi. This is a national shame. An estimate puts (because of power theft like the one below) the loss amount to $3 billion!!(Source)

d) Private players cannot sell electricity to customers directly (unlike Gujarat which does allow).

e) State electricity boards (SEB) are running under losses total adding to Rs.2.46 lakh crore in 2012 (Source). But why do states end up in losses? This is because many states offer free electricity to farmers or at a very low subsidized rate. The tariffs are not regularly revised and they depend on bank loans that is difficult to repay. All this in the name of vote banks of the poor. This is practiced by almost all political parties across various states. The government recently waived half of the debts SEB has and the other half SEB will issue bonds to the banks -on the condition they strive to make them profitable. Almost all SEB are bankrupt excepting Gujarat which is running surplus. But really what SEB's need is not government's money, but a way of increasing its capacity.

A classic example is seven years ago TamilNadu was a power surplus state but now is bankrupt because the DMK government gave free electricity to farmers.

How is Gujarat having surplus electricity and how is it having low distribution losses (Business Today Source) ?

• Multiple sources of electricity add to the electricity grid of Gujarat. Wind, Solar, coal, natural gas, water - all exist in the state. Most of these are run by private companies which can sell the generated power to consumers and to the state electricity board. So, it has more than the state's demand every year (for the past 6 years or so).
• The farmers get NON FREE 24*7 electricity to their homes and at fixed times to their fields separately. They are not mixed. This is called Jyotigram scheme launched by the CM Modi way back in 2003. Since the farmers are assured of electricity for both homes and fields, they have not hesitated to pay for the same as against free electricity which is erratic and unpredictable. This is done through separate feeders for fields and homes - a feat that only this state has it and is working marvelously.
• It raises tariffs periodically to that industries don't mind paying since they get uninterrupted power supply
• 2200 km gas grid connects the industries and provides them with electricity through natural gas.
• Set up 5 police stations across the state only to catch electricity thieves and disconnected anybody who was getting un metered electricity. This brought down transmission losses from 35% to 15% (Times of India)

So, where do we see going in the future?

If our current power cuts has to be avoided, more electricity needs to be added to the grid. Uncertain monsoons and absence of several dams make hydro unreliable, inefficiently exploited coal makes coal unreliable. The only way out is to have more solar parks, solar energy and wind energy. The private companies which can invest in this must have a way to directly sell this to customers so that it creates a competition between state boards and private companies thereby benefiting customers. The customers at least in cities will pay more if they have to provided they get uninterrupted power supply. Every state must take the feeder separation mechanism so that its own board won't run into losses. People need to stop electricity theft and take accountability for the usage.

This complex picture of electricity in India is worrisome. One needs to keep in mind that we are generating electricity but it is still far short in proportion to the demands. If we continue at this rate even 20 years down the lane we will experience power cuts everyday.

Our PM fought for nuclear deal. This deal has headed nowhere except bringing Congress back to power. The nuclear power is far more complex, requires great regulation and safety mechanisms and can take years to set up one. We can't wait for that long. Solar and Wind are the answers which India abundantly gets. If a couple of states have shown this, the entire country can.