Bihar Results - pre-cursor to BJP's Lok Sabha defeat in 2019?

When the Bihar results were to be announced on Nov 8th I was very positive that a) Nitish would get maximum seats b)Lalu Yadav would get close to 30 out of 100 seats and c) Congress may bag 10 seats leading to the formation of JD(U) government. However, the result was a clean sweep for JD(U) and a humiliating defeat for the Modi led BJP. The internet and social media is flooded with their own endless loop of analysis and counter analysis as to what went wrong and what caused BJP this embarrassing defeat. 

One fact that is beyond debate is that the BJP did not project a good state leader and was campaigning the same way like the Congress does. This is the second time that BJP did not project any face and chose to contest in the name of the PM. It was pretty much looking like Congress campaigning in the name of the Gandhi family. BJP is not Congress and should not have treaded that path. The purpose of writing this article is not to elaborate on the election defeat, but to visualize its national implications.

The larger impact of the election is that anti-BJP forces have strengthened themselves. The biggest irony of national politics in India is that BJP has more enemies than friends, whereas Congress has more friends than enemies. When BJP ascends, all forces move towards Congress and when Congress descends, all forces attempt to form the Third front which collapses even before it is made. At this point in time, Nitish is that trump card that the third front could use in 2019 Lok Sabha election. It is very much possible that Congress may support Nitish with the sole aim to defeat BJP. Bihar election results has only emboldened the determination of all regional parties opposed to BJP to come together and stand with or without Congress. These regional parties control a huge chunk of numbers in Rajya Sabha making it harder for the government to get bills passed.

Let's understand that these very parties existed in 2014 too. However, it was one leader, one determined person who led to an unbelievable and unimaginable electoral victory and that was our PM. Our PM is still 9th most powerful person in the world, the only Executive head (India) who is controlling the government with strength never before seen (after 1980) and has an unmatched vision and strategy to implement sea changing governing policies. Yet the pace of governance is slow and is not matching up to the expectations. The PM cannot allow the opposition to dominate in 2019. The only way he can do this is completely change the narrative through some ground breaking results to see. 

At this point it is very clear that the Parliament will not be allowed to function and the PM will be stopped on all of his bills. The crucial GST bill, Land Acquisition Bill, Labor Reforms is surely out of reach till the next Lok Sabha election. While the PM has to initiate a dialogue with the opposition he also has to venture outside Parliament to do several wonders. Examples - building houses for all, decreasing the infant mortality rate, ensuring electrification of all villages, inter linking of rivers, bringing back black money, modernizing railway stations, generating a second green revolution, ensuring Jan Dhan Bank Accounts to get all subsidies eliminating middle men. These should be the focus of the PM. 

Not focusing on social issues has always costed BJP very dearly in Lok Sabha elections. It is very easy for the opposition to raise these issues and create a negative atmosphere and shift the voters away from voting again for the PM.  It does appear that this is becoming the narrative on which all regional parties (opposed to the BJP) will campaign in 2019. Nitish could be that clean face that will be projected as the possible PM candidate and several swaths of Eastern India will vote for him. An aspect that cannot be ignored is that despite the pitch for governance and progress, people may not align with the PM and this is where his communication skills may defeat him even though he will use it to the fullest extent. 

Rahul Gandhi still is no match for the PM. The only person who can even credibly challenge the PM is Nitish Kumar. Personally, I don't consider Nitish any match to the PM at the national level. The PM must seize this defeat and convert every attempt by the opposition to derail him into an opportunity to bounce back. If this doesn't happen 2019 will be a reflection of Bihar 2015.

2019 must also not be 2004 where a government that changed the face of India into a hub of growth suddenly disappeared because voters were disenchanted and voted them out. The PM cannot solely campaign on the basis of economic growth and job creation. Rural India won't understand this and large sections of urban India won't appreciate this and vote. No Indian PM has ever been rel-elected only on the basis of economic growth results.

The uniqueness of our PM is that he was able to usher in agricultural growth through scientific technologies while balancing the industrial growth in his state as a CM. This unique trait needs to be demonstrated at the national level. Three years is still a long time in Indian politics. The journey though appears to be dark inside Parliament and bright outside.

Gauging the pulse and pace of the Modi Govt Oct through mid December 2014

No one can deny that the Modi govt has begun to cause tectonic changes in the speed at which files are being cleared and stalled projects being reinstated. The entire bureaucracy is energized like never before. However, on the ground reality is that economy is not showing signs of stable recovery. To expect that it will happen overtime is futile. While many of his bureaucrats are working overtime to come up with effective legislations or amendments to existing legislations the lack of majority in Rajya Sabha has tied Modi's hands. Major legislations that can bring the economy back on track requires majority from both Lok and Rajya Sabha members. The government is very well aware of the fact that until 2016 Rajya Sabha numbers won't change. Legislations such as amendment to Land Acquisition Bill, Labor Reforms and Goods and Services Tax (GST) - are critical to make "Made in India" a reality. Of these 3 the last one is something the government has been making real headway. If all goes well at least GST will be a reality making the entire country into one tax system cutting across all states. The remaining ones are highly doubtful as mentioned earlier with the government in a minority in Rajya Sabha and Congress will not easily support just like BJP did not during the UPA time.

In spite of being cognizant of all these facts the BJP government has given the fuel for opposition to prevent the normal functioning of Rajya Sabha. The sad pace of legislative bills getting passed in this Winter session is very disappointing. Clearly, the government is at fault for a lot of this. Allowing irresponsible statements from some of his irresponsible ministers is definitely casting shadow on Modi's image and government. The statement by Sadhvi saying people of Delhi will have to choose a government that of the "Raamzaade" or that of "Haraamzaade" and statement by Saakshi Maharaj calling "Godse a patriot" are clearly just unwanted and ridiculous statements. These cast a shadow on thousands of supporters who voted for BJP the first time. It also tarnishes the very governance agenda that he wants to fulfill. This is still early in the game and Modi hopefully will be able to contain these elements just like he did in Gujarat when the fringe elements began to take over his governing agenda. 

6 months in office is too early to conclude about the policies of the government, but the road is very rocky. This article is my own critical evaluation of the govt mainly from Oct to mid Dec 2014. This is because October and November brought about an unusual pace of effective activity.  They were series of decisions that have created optimism in the economy. This by no means is enough although promising.

The PM is working 24*7 even if his government is not. There is over time activity to get legislations drafted so that some basic foundation can be laid on top of which all promises made can be fulfilled. 

Modi remarked in one of his speeches on the evening of "Made in India" event that his aim is to make India reach 50 in the list of countries in the ease of doing business. Currently, India is at 143. To achieve this a slew of legislative changes in labor, tax and land is very much needed. 

Some of the good steps taken so far are as below:

1) Decentralizing diesel prices and removing them from the subsidies. Inflation has been reduced to lowest levels one can think of  and luck is a factor with the government. There was no Modi effect on inflation being low. Global crude prices have been falling since the last 2 months that has drastically decreased inflation. The government basically took advantage of this opportunity and eliminated the subsidies on diesel and made it in line with the market prices just like petrol. This is required and yet good as long as prices are down. The distribution channel of goods need to be structured so that inflation effects are moderated (GST is supposedly going to answer this anomaly). 

2) The random computerized selection of inspectors and units to be inspected to aid 1.3 million companies.

This has been pending since a decade. Prior to this law the 1800 inspectors from EPFO, Employees’ State Insurance Corporation, Central Labour Commissioner and Director General of Mines’ Safety used to randomly select manufacturing units, conduct arbitrary inspections, manipulate reports and harass manufacturing units in the name of non-compliance. With this new rule no manufacturing industry will know ahead of time which inspector is going to inspect its premises for safety and regulatory audits and what the criteria is. The fact that these inspectors have to submit their report within 72 hours makes it even more difficult to bribe or manipulate the inspectors (although very much possible).  However, there are some major doubts - can the inspector himself be trusted? Will 72 hours be a guarantee that a honest report is done? What is the certainty that the inspector is not bribed?

3) Launching of a Universal Account Number for Provident Funds so that employees who switch companies need not cancel existing PF account and open a new one. This was waste of time and energy for both employer and employee. With this announcement sooner or later there will be a universal number for employees.

4) Transfer of LPG subsidy directly into Bank Accounts: This is a huge initiative. Banks are working overtime to meet the target set by the Government. Earlier when the UPA government wanted to implement this scheme using AADHAR, the Supreme Court passed an order that citizens cannot be forced to get an AADHAR since the bill to make it mandatory has not been passed by the Parliament. Therefore, the government issued a directive to consumers whether they have AADHAR or not, having a bank account and registering or linking that to the LPG is a must. This way they honored Supreme Court order but still allowed money to reach directly into consumer's bank account. Now, there is a huge rush across country to open bank branches in the name of "Jan Dhan Yojana". If played correctly all the subsidies or benefit transfer of fuel and fertilizer can be done through this mechanism. This will eliminate crores of rupees being eaten by the middle men in the system reducing a lot of corruption. Just by pushing LPG subsidy into Bank Accounts the Government aims to save 10,000 crore of rupees in a year which is lost in corruption. An interesting article to read is this.

5) The bill to change the coal block allocations passed in Lok Sabha- Coal is still used to source 60% of India's electricity needs. There is no proper coal transportation mechanism in the country and the expenses in transporting coals to the plants where electricity is produced is very high. All the coal allocations done (whatever mechanism used) from the 1993 till 2014 have been scrapped by the Supreme Court. So, Lok Sabha passed a new bill that allows private companies to aid in the mining of some of the coal mines without any monopoly attached to any one company.(Source). However, this bill needs its clearance in Rajya Sabha which is very challenging. If this bill gets passed then the coal supply and production will get a new life and will aid in meeting electricity demands.

6) The approval of 25 solar parks each with 500MW of solar energy production - This is to aid to generation of solar energy and its contribution to the electricity grid. These parks will not have to go through any environmental clearance or other regulations. These solar parks will have "Made in india" solar panels. Hopefully these projects will see the reality.

7) Filing one form instead of 16 to comply with 44 labor laws of the Center. In a huge relief the Government announced an online way of filing labor related forms so that one form will replace 16 different forms and ease the pace of business.

8) A tangible and result oriented foreign policy is being pursued and Modi is spearheading the policy despite Sushma Swaraj being the External Affairs Minister. He has established strong relationships with countries in East Asia, Australia, Russia, USA, and Middle east. His recent visits to some of these countries has attracted them to invest heavily in India for manufacturing. He has ensured that Pakistan is forced to accept no talks after attacks on Kashmir border and made China go silent for a while at the border. Here is an article in World Politics Review which sums up Modi's foreign policy as "Zero Problems Approach"

9) Aadhar based Digital Life Certificate for pensioners. This would help pensioners get their pension continuously without having to produce certain documents every year. For more on this one can read this article.

While the above are very encouraging there have been several failures or non-starters and some of them are as below:

Ganga Rejuvenation Plan:

No one knows where this plan is headed. There is absolute silence on the implementation of this Rejuvenation Scheme. This personally is something I am keenly waiting for since it is a constituency the PM is elected from and there are great expectations on this. 6 months is too early to judge this but with a person like Modi at the Center there is more to expect.

Failure on the Black Money issue:

The UPA Government had mentioned that there is no clear way of coming up with a figure as to exactly how much money is stashed illegally abroad in Swiss banks and any effort in getting it is not government's alone. The BJP at that time said that Congress was intentionally not interested in bringing back the money and Modi had promised that next Government (BJP) will bring it. He also went to the extent saying each salaried individual will get a share of the money. 6 months into the office the Government has no proper figures and nor a concrete mechanism to get it out. The only good thing is the Special Investigation Team (SIT) has been constituted and it is doing some serious work on it. Despite having information the government mentioned only 4 names to the public and then sent the entire document to the Supreme Court after it gave a harsh statement to the Modi government. Read this article that explains how the numbers stack up

Smart cities:

If the Government cannot get Land Acquisition Act amended Smart cities will only be a dream. There has no headway in the direction so far other than a blueprint which serves no purpose. I see this as a distant dream - something not even visible in the next decade. Do the readers think otherwise?

Swach bharath

With all the nice gestures and sincere attempt by the PM there is no ground breaking move yet in the direction of making Swach Bharath a successful mission. There is still ambiguity over how much Center is willing to spend and how the states and also how the private companies will build toilets or implement solid waste management projects. This needs to resolve at the earliest.(source).


In a nutshell even though Modi is working 24*7 and keeping the requisite grip on bureaucracy he has to still rein in elements meant to spoil his party, government and agenda. He has to make sure through legislation radical changes are done to Land and labor laws. The whole world is waiting for this to make Made in India a reality. 

What do you think about the last 3 months of Modi's policies?

How Modi is shaping, shaking and inspiring his bureaucracy

Ever since Modi took oath and reached Prime Ministers Office (PMO), he has made almost every move historic. Actually, let me correct. Even before taking oath he played a masterstroke by inviting all SAARC leaders for attending his swearing ceremony. It was entirely his brainchild in order to send out a strong message that Asia's stability is more important than developing friendly relations with Europe or America.

Modi has taken some very unusual steps of getting his bureaucratic team to work with extreme seriousness and dedication. When former PM Manmohan Singh took office he made merit based appraisal to be in place every year. No one saw it happen and constantly incompetent and corrupt officials dominated the PMO. In fact, PMO was rendered powerless and all decisions were taken by Sonia Gandhi.

On the contrary, Modi has converted his PMO the ultimate decision making office. He has asked his bureaucrats to report to him first before leaking any matter to media or the public. Such a meeting happened almost after 8 years. The very first day he met all bureaucrats - 72 Department secretaries (Source)of various departments under one roof and gave them clear cut instructions on how he is accessible by email, phone, SMS, personal interaction and that he would welcome any idea that works. He made it clear asking them to work without "fear or favor" and that he would protect them in return for their complete dedication. He clearly asked them to work long hours, make their offices functional and friendly to everyone who can walk into their office. He asked them to use technology as far as possible in their functioning. He has told them to make India relevant and everything else irrelevant. 

Unlike Singh, Modi appears to have an acute sense of listening and speaking out his ideas. All this is not new to bureaucrats in Gujarat but the whole country is now witnessing this unprecedented work style.. In fact one of the news articles stated that when asked about how to get Bus Rapid Transport System (BRTS) work the official gave a few ideas and Modi said he would get back to him. 24 hours later he came up with his own ideas and a blend of both was employed. It shows how seriously Modi takes his work and implementation of his vision. There is a personal touch he adds to every initiative which makes him more accountable. His team in Delhi is waking up to this new reality. With discouraging family members or acquaintances to occupy posts in the office and asking them to work from 8 am to 8 pm 5 days a week or 6 days a week from 8 am to 5 pm - he clearly has made it very rigid for the bureaucrats to become performance oriented. Typically, these bureuacrats are Indian Administrative Officers (IAS) who report to their respective Minister. Under Singh, the PMO gave full freedom to the Ministers asking them to depend on these officers and take decisions. If the head of a team is not cognizant of what his team is up to the team collapses in no minute. This is true to anything - be it sports, a movie production, a company or even a society. The former PM was not strong enough to show his command and authority. Modi, however, has set a very strong foundation where he has categorically stated he won't tolerate  any such acts. His 10 point agenda for all bureaucrats is truly noteworthy and he has chosen fairly a reliable team.(source)

Modi talks sharply and crisply is a matter now well known. The very first day in office he asked all his Secretaries to make Power Point Presentations conveying what projects are stalled, what can be done and all had to be in bullets and no lengthy paragraphs or theoretical data. This itself shows he means business and that he expects his officials not to form committees for no reason to research something. Here is an article that explains how bureaucrats were excited and motivated to work after their interaction. Some of them were even worried to tune to Modi's style.

Modi has chosen some really impeccable officers of the highest integrity known to India in his core team. He is relying more on these officials than his own ministers. He wants his ministers to take political actions while the officers take policy actions. Here is a very interesting article that explains how Modi chose his core team of bureaucrats and why he chose ones with high merit and proven track record. This is truly motivating.

Modi himself puts 18 hours of work a day. This act of Modi is beginning to inspire several honest and committed bureaucrats to follow suit. He has never taken a vacation as CM of Gujarat even for a single day according to his own tweet. His relentless energy is visible in whatever he does. His team is just astonished to see his energy.

He scrapped GOM, EGoM (Video) which were formed during UPA and the committees did nothing but just met and did some paper work without really coming up with concrete implementations. This is truly one of the best steps because we don't need committees but people who are committed to taking actions.

Another interesting thing is when Modi asked all bureaucrats to report to him on any final decision without just conveying it to their respective MP's. Unlike the previous regime where bureaucrats would override PMO, Modi has asked that PMO overrides every MP and every bureaucrat. Basically, nothing goes out with Modi and if anything has gone he would get to task of correcting it. Such steps work as long as the leader heading the team is vigilant on every activity. Modi has shown to be so vigilant in Gujarat and he will be so.

The new phrase these days doing the rounds is "The Prime Minister is watching you".

Just within a fortnight he has set up so many meetings, met so many officials - sometimes as late as 9 pm. 

An interesting article was published here which stated that everyone is struggling hard to cope up to this work style. Here is another where ministers are expressing it is not easy to take a vacation unless results are shown.

Despite this workaholic style of working, Modi seems to find time to communicate directly to people through Twitter. He creates his own media and speaks directly to the very people to whom he is accountable. It is this distinctive style that has made him a very special politician seen in the last 30 years. 

While all of this is truly path breaking and a solid foundation is now laid we have to wait for results. The challenges and promises made are huge. Such groundwork seems to be promising, but having a good team is one and performing during crucial circumstances is another. A team's best test is when it has to perform in a harsh terrain. India is a harsh terrain in every angle - social, economical, financial or geo-political. It  is too early to comment on the team's performance since the journey has begun.

Many promises Modi made are quite tough to implement across the country. River linking, creation of 100 smart cities are just two of them to mention. Many action plans that have worked in Gujarat are tough to replicate across the country especially in states where the anti-Modi parties function.

One thing is for sure. A true action-oriented person who has occupied the highest post. He has his task cut out and let's hope that this good team indeed does some good work.

Going by the standards of how our bureaucracy functions in all states cutting across all political parties, it is a welcome change to see the spirit with which Modi's team of bureaucrats are beginning to perform.

The PM has already indicated that he will take harsh steps which may not please everyone who loves him. Let's see if these steps are harsher than the harsh conditions we already are facing.

An unfathomable victory of the Modi led BJP

BJP's victory and ride to power in 2014 is truly unfathomable. As a student of Indian politics since 1998 I always had a firm belief that a non-Congress party will never get a majority on its own. Even when BJP (that claims to be the other pole of Indian politics) rose in numbers from 2 to 189 it was still believed to be difficult to see a day of it getting an absolute majority. The quote - "Every dog has its day" was too difficult to be applied for any non-Congress party in this context. Congress's reach to the remotest parts of the country is unbeatable and the strategy to get rural votes is best known to Congress and hence they have been invincible time and again.It's leftist approach in 70's and rightist approach in mid 90's attracted every section of the society towards it. Every caste and religion found a place in the party. It was a fortress that was impregnable until the rise of regional parties in mid 1990's .With the shocking loss of NDA in 2004, UPA came to power and the first UPA term had some innovative ideas but in the 2nd term it turned leftist when the country was moving towards rightist tendency. It made a gross miscalculation in gauging this public mood.

When Assembly elections were held last year Congress lost all of them and it was too late to make any reversal of its policies. It was a wake up call. The party was over confident that its pro-poor policies will win them every vote. My personal dislike with the way Congress started going to 1970's era intensified with the passage of Food Security Act. The drubbing Congress got need not be elaborated. It is crystal clear.

BJP getting absolute majority on its own has changed the political scene for many years to come. Truly, BJP has now become the other pole in Indian politics. Of all the leaders Modi was the only one who was confident of achieving this feat. Even though exit polls were giving signals of a BJP led government I was sure of NDA getting majority but not BJP on its own. The way Modi campaigned throughout India has set a new benchmark in election campaigning. Modi used one tactic which was a great gamble. This tactic was to change the tone and tenor depending upon the place he campaigned. Here is an article that explains how Modi attracted people in different parts of the country by connecting people's hearts easily. This is an unseen strategy by a politician in India. Indira Gandhi could connect naturally everywhere she went because she projected herself as Nehru's daughter and Nehru had a reach no politician can match till date. For a person with no such background to market himself, and to make both aggression and future vision as the center of campaign was the greatest gamble. Another huge gamble he played was to confidently tell people why he fits the PM post and made it centric to him.

As Modi took this daunting task head on he carefully planned to bust the perception that BJP cannot make a presence in South and Eastern states. He silently made NDA an alliance of 17 parties  from just 4 within a few months after he was announced PM candidate. In addition to all these efforts he crafted a brilliant marketing campaign unseen and unheard in Indian political history. His oratory skills is by far the best we have seen after Vajpayee. Modi spoke exactly that was in tune with the aspirations of the people. His focused speeches with clarity of thought removed several myths and notions people had about him. He traveled 3,00,000 km, addressed 437 big rallies, 5827 public events spread over 25 states. His "Chai Pe Charcha" program and reaching out to the remote villages in UP explaining how development had changed Gujarat opened the eyes of millions of people and raised the hopes of a better future. His slogan "Sab ka vikas, Sab ka saath" catched everyone's attention. The use of the word "development" in all his speeches dominated more than the words "communal" and "secular" used by almost all parties anti to BJP. 

This scale of campaigning and victory is unfathomable to not just politicians of other parties but to many inside BJP itself. The old guard of BJP lost the hope to see a day like this after Vajpayee retired in 2005 from active politics. Over the next few weeks journalists, psephologists, sociologists, thinkers and historians will continue to unravel more stats. Here are just some of the startling stats revealed so far. Of the 31 string Scheduled Tribes constituencies, 21 were won by BJP. Of the 80 seats in UP BJP won 71. Of the 16 seats in UP where Muslims dominated between 20-50% BJP won all of them. This doesn't mean Muslims overwhelmingly supported BJP, but a large number of them definitely did. The party that was known to be a Brahmin party gained almost all of the OBC and Dalit seats in UP and Bihar. It appears that the caste perception barrier was broken when Modi reached to everyone and asked to them to fight poverty than against one another. In 10 states Congress did not open an account. In states where it was strong was proved weak. BJP has 31% of the total vote share and it sprung into majority. This as per many stats is the lowest voteshare that gave absolute majority to a party at the center. The Congress used to have 40-70% vote share that converted to a majority in its glory days. Here's another very interesting article that illustrates a fact that of the 12 largest states (Uttar Pradesh, Maharash­tra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karna­taka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Orissa and Kerala) that account for 440 (81% of seats to Lok Sabha) seats BJP won 61% of seats - something no party has ever been able to achieve including Congress anytime ever.

No matter what one says this victory is purely Modi's, not even BJP's. He worked so tirelessly and campaigned aggressively that many within the party did not even go to even half the distance he traveled. His idea to reach the remotest corners of the country where BJP doesn't even have a presence was something the party had to do in 2004. He did this and he will continue doing this. He is known for taking a task and not relinquishing it until finished to perfection.

Now that the victory celebration is done it is time to serious work. If one has observed his track record he is known to surprise everyone by his sheer hard work and political acumen. After declaring himself Mazdoor Number 1 we have to see to witness this at a national scale. There are many promises Modi made that are feasible and some that are very daunting given the complexity of India. It is often said that the greatest hurdles come in the way of people who have the greatest will power. It is such a moment in India now. Let's hope for the best.

In the days and years to come he will be judged by how he takes the country forward. People,however, must have patience since "Rome was not built in a single day".

Theatrics and Reality of AAP Government

For millions of people when Arvind Kejriwal was elected as Delhi CM represented a strong beacon of a healthy change in Indian political system. This was because there is no political party left in India today that can claim to be corrupt free. AAP occupied the space of a corrupt free one. The expectations just sky reached because it was expected that AAP would do something that was least expected and far more unique when compared to all other political parties. The media still continues 24*7 coverage of AAP policies, behavior and perspectives and it really has become the watch dog more than any AAM ADMI in Delhi. If the media was really active during the pre-2000 era all negative shades of both BJP and Congress would have been exposed. The truth of secualrism v/s communalism, truth about every policy move BJP/Congress took when they were in power would have come to the forefront long before. 

Whether you call it bad timing or not the Lok Sabha elections appears to be a huge opportunity for this new party and so the entire strength and force is currently being put behind winning maximum seats in Lok Sabha rather than proving themselves through governing Delhi. This dream of occupying the role of a spoiler to both Congress and BJP seems to be very much in the mind of every AAP member. Nothing wrong with it, although it is detrimental to 2014 elections since a majority to any party is far better than a hung parliament.

Let's see through an objective prism as to how this party has fared and if the party really gives that hope for which it stood in the election and won. Delhi is probably one of those cities in India where corruption has penetrated every aspect of life and touches everyone. It is also one of its kind cities in India where there is no respect for breaking any law and no fear of accountability. These attitudes plague every city in India but strongly so in Delhi. This is the precise wavelength with which Kejriwal's agenda resonated Delhite's hearts. He transferred corrupt officials of the Delhi Jal Board and put in new officials. He also ordered an audit into prices of power companies so as to look into spike in electricity bills. He started a unique helpline that guides people to expose corrupt officials and make them available to the whole world. He ensured a fear is created amongst officials from taking a bribe. These things are welcome but not adequate to confirm the party's stand on several issues. The fact that AAP is planning to start SIT (Special Investigation Team) to probe into 1984 riots is a huge welcome move.

Why is his party or government not thinking of policies that can increase power generation? Why isn't his government executing an action plan to ensure there is good supply of water to peripheral areas of Delhi? Why is the government not executing any steps to cleanse the city of illegal colonies, unauthorized constructions? All these are the foundations of clean governance. Corruption must be tackled simultaneously, but complete effort should not be directed in this direction.

Women's safety of which the party made a big issue and promised women police officers patrolling the streets of Delhi is no where seem to be fulfilled. Recently rape cases that happened under his vigil highlight the pathetic betrayal of promises that the party made. The party is no different than other parties when it comes to taking populist measures such as subsidized water, or electricity. All parties give freebies, subsidized rate utility supplies, etc. How is it different from other parties? Why should a party depend upon freebies when the supply of utilities itself is incomplete and inadequate? 

One cannot dismiss and ignore the way in which the party sabotaged the city for just transferring 4 police officers who did not take action against the African women in Malviya Nagar. No matter how bad the crime the Law Minister of a government cannot take law into his hands and do what Mr. Bharti did. The internet is flooded with videos, transcripts, CCTv surveillance recordings, pictures etc that clearly prove how Mr.Bharti behaved pretty much like Ram Sene or other organizations that claim to be cultural guardians of the society. Such racist remarks and untenable behavior is a great blot on the party. Adding to the fire is the statement by Kejriwal that nothing was wrong in what Mr. Bharti did. There can be no explanation or excuse that can be given to such misdemeanor in public discourse. The members of the party seem to be overly aggressive in tone and tenor. It is just sufficient to see what opinions the members carry. As an example the party's Kumar Vishwas makes racist comments against Kerala women, backtracks on statements in Amethi, Prashant Bhushan's unacceptable statements about Kashmir and several others raise great doubts about the trust one can have on this party. If the party doesn't have patience and perseverance it cannot sustain itself.

The entire episode in which Mr.Kejriwal hijacked the rehearsals just before Republic Day celebrations demonstrated one thing. That the party can resort to one old, granted and a given technique of Dharna and Satyagraha. They are now elected representatives and not street protestors. If people have given them chance to rule they cannot transition themselves onto them. There are negotiations, diplomatic ways and peaceful talks that they can resort to find ways to solve a problem.

Some of the more symbolic gestures make no difference to me. As an example giving up VIP culture or making laws and government work on the streets. They don't add any value to me. What adds value is what difference you make whether you run the government in the four corridors or outside. What does AAP want to prove by making legislations in the open? Kejriwal could have asked live telecast of proceedings in Delhi Assembly. The Parliament proceedings are anyways broadcasted live. There are several interesting, mind boggling, thought provoking discussions that happen in Parliament. These proceedings over a period of time have number of times shown how each MP behaves and how unruly each MP can become. There is no need to bring that drama to the streets. Such gestures, according to me, are useless symbols of showing that you are different.

AAP must remember they can't change a system that has been running for 65 years, although they can change the flow of governance in the systems which is what efficient administrators do.They can't brandish the very system of which they are part as evil and do nothing about it.  There are several ways of using technology to fix issues that affect the common man on a daily basis.

The party which wants to appeal to the people to not to vote for Congress or BJP should have clear articulated visions of foreign policy and economics. Both of which are absent. They don't even have a team that can guide them about these matters. Imagine if the party doesn't have patience to deal with country's neighbors and other countries of the world. Aggression and impatience doesn't work in international diplomacy. We live in truly complicated globalized world that requires immense planning and strategy to tackle them. Just by concentrating on corruption no party can give governance. At a national level AAP is truly unprepared and amateurish. No matter how much we criticize, love or hate Congress and BJP - it is only these parties that have the complete expertise to deal with complex geopolitical realities and adapt policies that suit such circumstances.

The party simply cannot have a pan India appeal until it proves its worthy of it. Simply by adding Sonia Gandhi, Modi, and others to corrupt party list and then propagating it won't fetch any votes. It is important that AAP proves itself in Delhi before dreaming big. 

Further, AAP claims it has more members than it can finalize for contesting 350 Lok Sabha seats. It is not a cakewalk. Many parts of India are choosy at a national level to elect a new party.

Two months is still a small time for a new party to be judged, but absence of patience and maturity will not win them any seats outside National Capital Region and it is a reality that AAP must accept and mend its ways. Ruling Delhi and ruling India are totally different worlds. AAP must set its eyes completely on Delhi.

Reforming political system requires institutional changes and not aggressive posturing. Aggressive posturing works as long as the person leading it is in command. Once the person leaves everything is back to square one. An institutional change on the other is more effective and tends to be permanent.

Assembly elections analysis and dramatic debacle of Congress

Congress's depth of defeat in the Hindi heartland cannot be measured in numbers anymore. They have been rejected so badly that it would take years for it to recover. Forget decent defeat this was a decimation. Congress continuous effort to make India a welfarist state where tax payer's money would be given to poor people and convert India into even more corrupt system without altering the existing delivery system of governance has made them an entity to hate by large sections of the country. The misgovernance and increasing inflation has caused widespread anger.

Delhi:

Ending up with 8 out of 70 in Delhi is the worst ever performance. This is worse than Congress's lowest tally so far of 10 in 1978 (post Emergency). A huge variety of factors worked against the Congress - corruption, the way Commonwealth Games were conducted after loot of people's money, deteriorating law and order, rising prices, the inhumane way of treating Anna Hazare and his movement supporters and so forth. Delhi was the safest bet for Congress and a citadel hard to breach with Sheila Dikshit at the helm. Anti-incumbency was not a factor for Sheila as much as Congress wants to portray it.

The rise of AAP is a big shocker for the entire political spectrum. With Omar tweeting that low turn out of crowd is a big problem he was signalling that absence of people at Rahul's rally was a disaster waiting to happen. AAP which captured voter's imagination by raising issues that genuinely affect common man, by writing a manifesto with direct inputs from voters, reaching out to peripheral areas of Delhi which had never received any benefits from either BJP or Congress - were all honest efforts by a new political party to reach out to voters.

Sheila had taken Delhi for granted and the people saw in AAP a genuine alternative to both Congress and BJP. Many people were confused whether to vote for AAP or BJP (since a new clean face Harshavarhdan of BJP personally selected by Modi himself was the CM candidate). Had BJP not changed their leader in the nth moment AAP would have stormed to power with a clear majority. The real hero is AAP and its leaders. They defeated so many Congress and BJP leaders and Arvind defeated Sheila - a moment remembered in history. One could not have imagined that Arvind could defeat Sheila in this manner. He even refused to contest from any other seat and was so convinced to face Sheila and wanted to stand anywhere Sheila stood. 

Role of Modi Factor: Yes, since a clean image of Harshavardhan got BJP the chance of being the single largest party.

 Rajasthan:

No where can Congress's rout be felt as much as Rajasthan (after Delhi). A mere 21/199 seats and BJP getting 80% of seats - 162/199 is a remarkable first time feat for both BJP and Rajasthan's political history.
This is worse than BJP's lowest tally so far of 32. Vasundhara Raje campaigned too hard in the state. Rajasthan somehow votes very decisively each time. It looks like the entire state votes in the same manner. No state probably can match this sort of behavior every 5 years. Gehlot government had been so much inactive that the people were very much against it. Besides, Congress pushed all its central government schemes in Rajasthan to be used as a test lab to be replicated across India and that too in the final year. It failed so miserably that it even backfired. 

Role of Modi factor: DEFINITELY YES. Since the surge of BJP could not have been because of Vasundhara alone. She herself expected close to 120 seats. This additional 42 seats is definitely because of how Modi campaigned in Rajasthan. He truly capitalized Congress's non-performance.

Madhya Pradesh:

Madhya Pradesh genuinely saw real development work in the last 6-8 years. Roads, electricity and women's welfare schemes were a huge hit. Several of my friends repeatedly told me Shivraj Singh Chauhan did impressive work in rural parts of the state and life improved under his leadership. By all its standards BJP did its best performance here since winning 3rd time with this sort of majority is no less achievement. 165/230 which is 22 seats more than in 2009.

Shivraj did what Modi could not do. He increased his victory margin the third time by a whopping 22 seats. Modi in his 3rd time victory managed to get almost the same number of seats as his last time.

Role of Modi factor: Only the SURGE since Shivraj's own charisma was much more than Modi's presence.

Chattisgarh:

Dr. Raman Singh of BJP was known for improvising the PDS scheme by which nearly a corrupt free system of transfer of food subsidies was operating. Further, Raman Singh had a tough opponent - Ajit Jogi. Last year when close to 50 Congress leaders were massacred by Naxals it was expected that Congress will ride on sympathy wave. The race between the two was so intense that till the last moment the seats were shifting in both BJP and Congress's favor. Finally, a 10 seat gap made BJP get 49 and Congress 39.

Role of Modi: Not Heavy, but the game tilting in BJP's favor was purely because of Modi's aggressive campaign.

What does this mean for Modi and BJP?

Modi wave cannot be discounted at all. However, Modi's success now hinges on how he can capitalize this Anti-Congress momentum in South and Eastern parts of India where BJP doesn't get good seat count. It is important that Modi makes his presence felt more than ever before in these regions and more so in UP. It is completely MODI and only MODI who can deliver now the drastic increase in BJP's tally. It is time for more smart strategy at work for Modi.

What does this mean for AAP?

AAP is truly the hero of this elections. However, a movement that converted itself into party would take time to make their presence felt in elections at the national level. They can increase their presence in several urban constituencies but can't really dent both BJP and Congress at least in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. You can win votes by showing your anger at the present government but unless they can prove in Delhi by being in government they can't convince voters throughout India. AAP's economic policies are like Congress where there is too much subsidy and freebies. We don't even know what their foreign policy is, how they plan to modify Tax code, how they plan to revive economy, how they can tackle China, how they can increase manufacturing etc. These issues are not easy to tackle just by getting clean and honest people. Right now the best answers to these questions lie only with BJP and Congress because of huge administrative experience in states and the Center. Here is my observation. To prove your mettle you need not be in power, but ruling the country is a whole new game that requires a different vision and perspective. Why is Modi acceptable to a large people? He has a proven track record of excellent governance unlike Rahul. He is making every effort to make himself acceptable to all sections of society.

The best way is to support either BJP or Congress in Delhi and get their Lok pal version passed. If they do so and then withdraw support at least they will prove to be serious contenders to both Congress and BJP. Also, they can offer issue based support just like Mr.Prashant Bhushan of AAP suggested so that way they can withdraw support if either of the 2 parties play tricks.

In other words AAP cannot emerge so strong so as to challenge BJP and Congress right away in this Lok Sabha, but given time they can definitely do so. 

What does this mean for Congress?

There is nothing to say except that things will get worse for Congress in 2014. But Congress is too smart to be ignored. You never know at the last moment what political strategy Congress may employ. It can say it won't declare Rahul Gandhi as PM. This is the best strategy since Sonia Gandhi would shield her son's career by not staking it in a fight against Modi. Secondly, Sonia Gandhi may prefer PM Singh to continue or ask Chidambaram to be the PM face.

Congress may resolve to more freebies and their famous "farmer loan waiver" may be triggered adding a fresh burden on the economy. Their attempt would be to woo the farmers or a massive reservation attempt for Muslims to win over their votes. Any resort to populist votes can be a double edged sword to the party.

The country cannot let itself go bankrupt by involving in these welfarist policies. Sonia Gandhi's National Advisory Council (NAC) must be thrashed out immediately for it is the main entity Sonia is relying on for coming up with such schemes. A young aspiring India is not at all a concern for the Congress.

Unless Congress reforms and comes up with a good vision they will fail to win the hearts of the people. And definitely, as its party member Mani Aiyar put it - "Who can be even half-way realistic and expect the Congress to return to power?" 

Land Acquisition Bill - Impact on Real Estate and Congress in 2014

Around 3-4 years ago several protests erupted across the country over land acquisition issues. Many highway projects were stalled because of this too. I had highlighted in my article in 2010 (Click here to read) how China passed a major land acquisition bill that kick started their economy since 1998. In fact, there has been no legislation that defined how the land will be acquired and what compensations must be given since 1894 when the British first introduced it. Land was acquired and no fair compensation was given to any land owner. This caused outrage, protests - popular amongst these being Singur protests in Bengal where farmers were killed because they didn't want to give up their land.

Congress worked hard to get a bill because the farmers vote bank was one they couldn't afford to lose. But it kept on delaying this bill until it found an opportunity at the time of elections to get it passed in a hurried manner. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, I guess took this as a personal project. She somehow asked all her party members to get it passed. Now, the BJP had to support it because it too has farmers vote banks in several states. Even if the BJP had opposed, Congress knew how to get the bill passed (hook or crook). This bill has many good provisions, yet the process to get to these provisions in reality is corruption prone and will only take us back to good old days of government control over everything.

Some salient features of this bill: (Source where numbers are got). MY comments are in Red below

• 70% of land owners and workers/affected families consent required for public-private projects and 80% in case of private projects.
• Compensation amount is upto 4 times market price in rural areas and two times in urban.
• Any land that is very fertile cannot be acquired and must be done as a last resort and states will apply restrictions regarding extent of such an acquisition. If states do want to take this then the state government needs to pay the value of agricultural land upfront (this is excellent since fertile lands should not be used for anything but agriculture)
• Only if no unused land is available (determined by the Collector) shall a farm land be acquired.(Can't the collector be bribed? If so, what happens). The collector can be fined upto 4 times in case he doesn't update records accurately since the compensation is heavily dependent on this.
• Any affected family (agricultural labourers, tenants including any form of tenancy, share-croppers or artisans who depend on this land since 3 years prior to acquisition) can accept a) employment which will be in addition to training, and skill development with monetary benefits such as Rs.50,000 transportation expenses and resettlement expenses. b) Or accept Rs.5 lakh one time payment, plus Rs.2000 per month for 20 years with inflation adjustments. c) Affected people will get Rs.3000 per month for 1 year. d) If the affected people include artisans then minimum amount (one time) must be Rs.25,000. (Good provisions! But how will payments be made? Can't it be connected to AADHAR or bank accounts directly? It needs to be else there will be corruption for sure). All this money that the recipient receives is exempt from TAX. (Wow!! That's better)
• In case of acquisition of land for irrigation or hydel project the rehabilitation and resettlement shall be completed six months prior to submergence of the lands proposed to be so acquired.(Good provision, at least money is given before land is acquired)
• The Collector shall take possession of land only after ensuring that full payment of compensation as well as rehabilitation and resettlement entitlements are paid or tendered to the entitled persons within a period of three months for the compensation and a period of six months for the monetary part of rehabilitation and resettlement entitlements commencing from the date of the award. However, families will not be displaced from this land till their alternative R&R sites are ready for occupation.(This is even better because land owners may not trust their buyer as seen in several cases).
• Any land belonging to tribals, SC/ST communities - shall be paid 1/3 of compensation amount upfront and the land must be acquired only after consent of the Gram Sabhas of that region. SC/ST communities do get additional compensation if their land is taken. (Good part is tribals are protected. It is the forced acquisition of tribal lands that has led to Naxal movement in several parts of East India)
• Social Impact Assessment Reports need to be carried out by government appointed experts with the Panchayat heads and must be discussed with them and Panchayats have the right to reject (good, but overreaching because any deadly nexus between the two could be disastrous on end and on the other hand industrialists will have to wait big time to get their land).
• Social Impact Assessment Reports must be done within 6 months.
• State Governments allowed to add more laws to enhance the same. In case the acquired land is not used for the intended purpose then the govt can use it for another purpose or return back to landowners. In case of return it has to be done within 5 years.(Can't it be done faster?)
• If the State Govt acquires the land and then sells it to a 3rd party for another price, then 40% of the appreciated value needs to be given to landowners.(Good Indeed!!)

Major issues with this bill - 

1)Time and increased costs associated with it and will take India back to pre-liberalization era:
It takes 6 months to do Social Assessment Impact, then another 1 year for further notification and approvals and then so forth. Why should the state sit and do this work? Why would so many layers of bureaucracy come in way to acquire a land? Why can't we have a regulator? At least regulators are better off than state governments and its various committees which will be corrupt and less interested in encouraging projects. The chart below will explain why this bill adds 50 month wait time(chart source: economictimes)

When land acquisition takes this long, it does affect industrialists. They cannot infinitely wait to start a business. This bill is heavily in favor of land owners rather than buyers. So, where should a border line be drawn so both interests are satisfied? There is no easy answer. However, given the lethargic bureaucratic system we have, multiple authorities and multiple approvals would take us back to pre-liberalized days and this is unacceptable. The time for clearance must be more only for exceptional cases rather than normal ones.

2) This bill is so outdated with respect to consultation process in that Chief Secretary and various other committees will decide everything. This is not the way highways are done, this is not the way telecom market grew, this is not the way insurance market is growing. Who would decide what the procedure of consultation is? How will the consent be taken - any verbal agreement or written agreement? It is left for states to decide? Such a regressive policy makes no sense. This provision is the most disastrous and poisonous provision of this law.

3) The Real Estate costs will only escalate with time. Any delays will impact the costs and corresponding compensation dearly. Imagine if a builder wants to acquire a piece of land how much time and money has to be spent in compensation, bribing officials to clear their tenders and projects and in the actual execution. Naturally, the costs will be passed to tenants, residents and eventually escalate the costs of buying or owning a house if the builder has to pay 4 times the compensation to the land owners. At least, if the clearance process is faster we will be better off. Our Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh is having an excellent track record for the past 5 years to stall every industrial project citing environmental concerns.

4) Will an Environmental Ministry hurdle come despite clearance from the Govt for a piece of land? The law doesn't seem to clarify on this. If yes, then forget we are moving to 21st century; we are already back in 1970's.

5) There are several constitutional flaws in the law. This article explains how Govt can still misuse an acquired land for public purposes.

So, while Congress can use this to their electoral advantage, industries have already begun to hate this law. Unless a borderline is drawn the legislation despite some of the best provisions can be a very outdated law with respect to time.

Remember, Indira Gandhi did this kind of bureaucracy in every department and every sector thereby causing the current corrupt state of the country to be what is. Had she thought of liberalization her tough leadership would have propelled India into a developed country right in the 1970's. The bureaucratic system and license raj system she introduced is precisely what many legislations of UPA are filled with under her daughter-in-law Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. 

At the end of the day it is quite obvious that Congress will sell this policy as pro-farmer with the expectation they will return back to power and who knows this may well be the truth come 2014.

Food Bill passed assuring Sonia of 2014 Congress victory

Indira Gandhi from 1966-1984 (except 1977 elections where she lost) was re-elected every time because she championed the cause of poor people although poverty never got eliminated. The most disastrous consequence of such a welfarist policy led to a declining economy, but an increasing vote share for her. India grew at 3% but Congress vote share went on increasing to more than 30%. "Garibi Hatao" was her slogan but Garibi was never eliminated and India got more corrupt. "Garibi" increased under her. If that was not the case why would we still have poverty?

Sonia seems to have caught this same pulse. She knows that it is the poor people who vote and so long as they are satisfied power cannot cease to Congress. Who cares about economy anyways? Economics is always stupid while populism is always clever.  Whenever this country has seen real all around growth people seem to have voted out that Government. Indians are to blame for themselves because poor people vote, half of the middle and rich class people are hardly concerned (and yet they want Government to be good...insane !!). This happened to Congress's Narasimha Rao in 1996 and BJP's Vajpayee in 2004. People really don't know what they want. If Sonia comes back to power in 2014, it is a clear victory to people who don't care about economy. We currently have a second term PM whose silence is being projected as innocence and when the PM says global factors are affecting India, here is a clear rebuttal to this blatant lie. There are 59 countries growing faster than us (considering 5% GDP growth) in the very same global scenario as the PM is accusing of. If everything is caused by global factors- why are we importing so much and why are we spending so much when we don't have any money? PM's statements in Parliament clearly reflect bankruptcy of ideas and cover up of misdeeds by his Government. His image is declining everyday but Congress will come back as people will vote them back.

Sonia will bounce back to power with a thumping majority because of Food Bill and there can be hardly any doubt I feel. All the corruption will get covered up as people will vote for Congress back.

My problem is not the Food Bill. My problem is its timing and its implementation at a time when we really don't have a transparent system by which food can reach the poor. Let's get to some glaring facts (Source):

• Of 79 countries on the Hunger Index, India stands at 65.
• Rs.60,000 crore worth of food is wasted due to inadequate storage facilities - Why no step has been taken to increase the storage capacity in the 9 years of UPA rule? If this was increased the food would have been distributed to poor. This would have not costed anything on the finances.
• Rs.2.6 crores is spent every year to increase storage capacity but this money is eaten as corruption.
• In 2003 India had produced 63 million tonnes of food grain but had storage capacity of 48 million tonnes and the rest was sold in international prices for prices lower than market price as against allowing them to rot in India (This was under NDA rule)
• 4.5 lakh sacks of wheat (worth Rs. 25 crore) was allowed to rot in UP in 2010. Utter waste of money. Why didn't UPA govt so concerned with the poor not take care of this?
• 3 lakh sacks of wheat was allowed to rot in Haryana under Congress rule
• 56,000 sacks of grain rotted in Maharashtra at a time when Sharad Pawar promised he will increase storage capacity.
• 50% of India's children are malnourished. Malnutrition levels are worse than sub Saharan Africa. What an absurd contrast? Excess food rotting and children with no food.
• There are enough cases of corruption in the existing PDS. There is absolutely no transparency and there are huge leakages in distribution, and money - What else can accurately explain that 50% of India's children are malnourished. Without improvising PDS Food Bill will only lead to more corruption.
• 70% of poor never get the grains under PDS and 55% of total grain gets leaked out based on studies done in the past few years.

So, if these are shocking facts what does Food Security Bill do? (Source)

• Aims to cover 75% of rural India and 50% urban India's poor people.
• 5 kg of foodgrain/person/month at Rs.3 for rice, Rs 2 for wheat and Rs.1 for millets and other coarse graisn
• Free meals for pregnant women, infants 6 months - 6 years age in the nearby anganwadi's.
• State Food Commissions appointed to address grievances (It's laughable because these commissions would eat up money than allow the process work transparently. Any common educated man knows this)
• State governments should make progressive steps such as doorstep delivery of foodgrains; end-to-end computerisation; leveraging “aadhaar” (UID) for unique identification of entitled beneficiaries; full transparency of records; preference to public institutions or bodies in licensing of fair price shops; management of fair price shops by women or their collectives; diversification of commodities distributed under the PDS; full transparency of records; and “introducing schemes such as cash transfer, food coupons or other schemes to the targeted beneficiaries in order to ensure their foodgrain entitlements” as prescribed by the central government.

Agreed that this country needs such a bill and it is not new since Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Chattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Orissa already have similar schemes. If all these states have the schemes has hunger been eliminated in these? It isn't. Why? It is plagued by faulty, non-transparent processes and high corruption. Only Chattisgarh has been an exception and the central government itself can emulate Chattisgarh.

What sets Chattisgarh system of Food Bill apart? These measures below have reduced leakages from 40% to 4%. This is a model example as several economists have also agreed to. The Central Government doesn't seem to include any of these to their flagship as given below. 

• Elimination of fair price shops by private firms and substituted by cooperatives, panchayats or women’s self-help groups; 
• Raised the commission earned by these mediators; 
• Computerised ledgers in godowns and, among other things
• Sent out a diktat that all food-related grievances must be settled by district magistrates within 15 days. 

In the Center's bill why would State Commissions bother to address these issues when the grievance mechanism is not strict and quick? That is why I re-emphasize that this is a faulty bill leading to more corruption and passed at a time when money and economy are in a tight spot and it is nothing but careless spending and done solely for vote bank politics.

Costs of this bill: 

The UPA Government says it already spends 90,000 crore on food subsidy and this bill adds another 10,000 crore. So, by its estimates about 100,000 crore. This is all but a gross under evaluation of expenses. This is just to calm down the markets. Let's see how much money Government has and how it can spend. The numbers below are taken from this article.

2013-2014 Receipts of Govt (money collected by Government) => Rs.11,22,799 crore

Add Govt's estimate of Food Security bill                                  => Rs.   1,24,723 crore

• i.e 11.10% of total money Govt gets will be spent on this.
• Economists estimate it will be 28% since the figure given by The Government doesn't take many costs like administrative ones in this estimate
• Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices - Ministry of Agriculutre estimates to be 21.15%
• Either way 20-25% of money Govt gets is being spent on Food Bill - This is 3% of GDP and this is huge financial burden. What about money for electrification, water supply, health etc? No one knows

Impact on Farming and why prices will go up with this Bill:

• We don't produce enough rice to meet these increasing demands. Therefore, we will have to import and the amount would be in dollars. Result: Increasing deficit, and pressure on rupee.
• Inflation will be natural if even food is now imported more than ever.
• While farmers may get inspired and produce more rice and wheat (because the government has assured the purchase) they will stop diversifying into any other crops and vegetables. This will lead to importing vegetables.
• Govt argues that farmers who grow vegetables will be assured of rice and wheat they will continue to grow vegetables and this may reduce the import. Will this mean that prices of vegetables will come down in the coming years? Not at all. People's lives will get worse in the coming years but people will still vote for Congress. 

At the end of this article I wish to emphasize the fact that the Congress doesn't have any explanation as to why it waited this long to make this bill pass and why it passed now.

It is often said that a hungry person cannot get satisfaction from anything other than food. Economics, politics or anything else doesn't matter to such a person. It is precisely these people that will be selected and Congress would create a hype out of this. This would turn the entire election game in the favor of Congress. If this bill has to succeed the ground work needs to be strong enough. At this point the sole aim is to win back votes and come back to power. This bill will surely do. The opposition led by BJP could not have opposed this since they too would risk losing votes if they blocked it.

Why BJP's loss was so obvious in Karnataka 2013 election

It's been a month now that Karnataka elections resulted in Congress coming to power. While Congress was very happy there was nothing to cheer about for the party itself. What was good was that BJP was voted out. BJP in its truest sense became a party just like Congress or even worse when it came to Karnataka.  Going by its own standards this was the worst government BJP ever gave. BJP had become so corrupt in the state that it was beyond recognition that it was the very party that was swept to power for it to be given a chance. The chance was greatly misused. Thousands of crores of corruption in mining scams in Bellary (close to 50,000 crores), the monopoly of Reddy brothers over the government, the bribery cases of Operation Kamala - all were recipes for disaster. One could not imagine BJP falling to these levels in a state where it first formed the government. Usually it takes at least one term for a party to become corrupt but BJP in Karnataka proved that no matter when given a chance it will show it will become truly corrupt. The extent to which Yediyurappa stole crores of rupees from the state exchequer was a glaring example of monumental corruption the head of the state can do. 

BJP's weak action against moral policing organizations's high handedness in Mangalore was not just inhumane but completely void of logic and sense. Sri Ram Sene attacks on pubs in 2009 and Hindu Jagarna Vedike attacks on the homestays were the heights of moral policing. Despite its claim that it doesn't associate or affiliate with such organizations it did not take any action. The whole Mangalore area clearly voted out BJP because of these acts. When I looked at the videos it just touched me and was just too brutal. I don't know how many inhumane things happen everyday in our country. We truly have lost the right to be calling ourselves a civilized society. 

BJP's weak record was so sharp that Congress did not have to do any hard work. Even if they had not campaigned they would have swept to power. In a way what is good is that JD(S) is out from controlling the government since the mercurial Deve Gowda can only bring in havoc for everything. Karnataka faces many challenges because of the lost decade since S.M.Krishna exited. It is far beyond in solving electricity and water problems. Water problems has become so acute in Bangalore that almost all parts have begun to feel it. The groundwater is used so extensively and there is no scope for water to recharge it. Congress in Karnataka is no good either but given a majority there is hope.

There are so many challenges before the new CM Siddaramaih. if he acts tough against non-doers people will vote him back again if not God knows the fate in the next election. 

People voted out BJP because the party led by Yediyurappa had tarnished its own party at the center and the people in the state so badly that they wanted to give a befitting reply and they did. BJP in the center is not same as BJP in states and Congress doesn't exist in states and is weak at the center. Remove Sonia Gandhi and you will see Congress fall like a deck of cards.Ironically if Sonia Gandhi binds the Congress it is her NAC which is spelling doom for the country. The deafening silence of PM is better to be left to itself for explanation.

If BJP can be voted out for corruption in Karnataka will Congress be voted out in Center next year? If the answer is "no" it only indicates how biased are our people in having 2 yardsticks for measuring a govt's performance. Congress record in UPA - II is so bad that every day there are scams and no one wants to take accountability. The way CBI was misused as spelled by the Supreme Court clearly shows how it has become a norm to keep quiet after corruption for Congress party.

There is another thing to notice as well. Both Modi and Rahul did not do any wonders and their impact on the state was zero. Te fact is Karnataka people wanted to vote on local issues and not national ones. Karnataka has the history of voting differently when it comes to state and center. Let's hope that it happens this time too.

Remember that a leader makes a party and party's ideology is not all relevant in Indian politics. If there is a credible face people will vote without caring for party's ideology. Given that fact Congress in the Center is leaderless and BJP doesn't want to have anoint a leader even though it has one - People will have to vote whichever carries a tough decisive leader.

I hope Karnataka sees good days given the fact that Siddaramaih is made the CM.

Who is a better leader? Modi or Rahul?

Media is obsessed with comparing the 2 future PM candidates from Congress and BJP even though both parties haven't officially declared them as the candidates.

However, every day there are many articles written and published about good and bad characteristics of these personalities.

In my assessment, any day, comparing the two, Modi comes out stronger and more fit for the post. Rahul is sincere, clean but very amateurish. When you hear Rahul he portrays himself to be more philosophical, less substantial in content and weak. He doesn't carry any baggage as per many, but according to me he does. He has been in power with his mother for 9 years now, but yet he doesn't speak out his mind. What he thinks about the existing problems, solutions he wants to implement and most importantly his control over his party - all are deep mysteries. 9 years is a long time for such mysteries to remain so. Recently, he gave a speech to Industries and it was a philosophical speech. Why despite being  9 years in power the philosophy hasn't been converted into reality? It's a simple question a common man must ask. This current government has faced enough crises and put the country into enough crises and no where Rahul has been visible. Chidambaram appears to be the only tough leader in the government who takes tough decisions and implements them. He doesn't depend upon anyone and neither does we wait after taking a decision.

How long can this country wait for undecisive leaders to continue? Whenever our country has seen tough leaders it has progressed. Toughness may or may not co-exist with corruption. Narasimha Rao was corrupt but was very tough. Vajpayee was tough and non-corrupt. Indira Gandhi was tough and had corruption baggage. Manmohan is neither corrupt nor tough. The time has come for tough leaders not just sincere ones.

Modi comes with 15 years of experience. Experience where he has led, where he has implemented tough decisions, taken out of box solutions to the ground. He neither exhausts himself nor reduces his stamina when it comes to saying what he has or wants to do to address problems.

Lot of people think industries are mushrooming but farmers are not under Modi. If that was the case what explains the growth of agriculture. Look at some of things Gujarat has seen. Check dams are built that replenish ground water tables, soil health cards are given to farmers that accurately help them know what to grow and when to grow (leading to very less crop failures), contract farming, continuous water supply, allowing farmers to sell produce directly to buyers saving costs on transportation and enduring physical pain. This is not what I am speaking. Here is an article from Forbes that proves this. Here's another business article that explains that even dry areas have become rich and arid land is no longer an inhibitor.

Here are some startling stats: (As of 2013) (Source)

• Drip Irrigation Area:  Increased from 12,00 hectares to 7 lakh hectares
• Cultivable land: Increased from 108 lakh hectares to 148 lakh hectares
• Horticulture production: 350% growth through crop diversification
• Milk production: 85% increase due to animal hospitals, better animal care, eradication of 122 cattle diseases
• Water: 6,50,000 water harvesting structures that help retain water and let it reach underground so that recharging takes place. Without this recharging there cannot be water recycling.
• 75% Gujarat has pipeline/water connection unlike India's 30%  - HERE"S UNICEF WEBSITE TALKING ABOUT THIS. - a mechanism by which amount of fluoride, nitrate, salt content has reduced making water truly drinkable.
• On its way to implement largest water grid in the country
• Gujarat uses 85% surface water and only 15% underground water whereas in Bangalore underground water has become the only source of water.
• Institutional baby delivery has increased from 45% to 95% (2005-2012)
• Here's UNITED NATIONS WEBSITE DESCRIBING use of technology to address common man's problems through CISCO developed SWAGAT mechanism where all districts, sub-district offices are connected using video conferencing directly interacting with Modi. Here's Indian express article confirming the same.
• 2800 km statewide Natural Gas grid helping industries.

Aren't these farmers common people, poor people? Isn't this an inclusive growth? Which state in India has these many programs being strictly and regularly implemented for farmers?

Each time Modi keeps telling "minimum government maximum governance" and that is what he has implemented in Gujarat. It is very true that just having a government doesn't help anyone, but a government that delivers governance can make all the difference. We keep talking about GDP. Newspapers are flooded with articles explaining Bihar is growing faster than Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh is growing faster than Gujarat and so forth. But GDP is not just numbers. GDP is true growth with respect to roads, electricity, water and initiatives taken that go beyond just solving problems. How many villages in India have electricity? According to an article there are still about 80,000 villages without it. However, Gujarat's 18,000 villages have continuous, uninterrupted electrcity. Not only that Modi has ensured that Gujarat becomes surplus in electricity but also ensured the same is exported the same to other states. Not only does Gujarat lead the solar energy production, it accounts for nearly 80% solar energy production in India. So, there is not only an emphasis on current electricity, but its future. Now, all government offices have been asked to have solar panels and very soon they can transfer this to the grid. Just think of this. Farmers in almost states struggle to get electricity, while in Gujarat they do not.  Here's CNN-IBN article on the same.

Now, coming to roads. The Planning commission headed by Congress itself has praised Gujarat's roads. World Bank's own report confirms that Gujarat has 20,000km of district roads and 16,000 km of highways and all roads are close to international standards. While Mumbai still suffers roads with potholes as like any other major city, Gujarat is not like that. Gujarat has lot more well planned and well implemented district roads connecting all villages.

Aren't roads, electricity, water - symbols of progress that reach every section, religion and caste of the society? 

Here's a well known journalist Madhu Kishwar who wanted to do a reality check in Gujarat and conclude if it is just hype and she wrote a well documented article which can be read here.

Gujarat stills lags behind several parameters in Human Development Indices. However, it is important to note that the number of development initiatives visible from the ground are far more than any other state.

I do not intend to go on writing more than these 3 basic things in this article. But these basic things are so much lacking in most parts of India. We have a highways revolution, airways revolution but electricity and water revolution are far from reality. Should we wait for another 100 years to see these or allow Gujarat's model to be replicated across the country.

One thing is for sure. It may be misfortune for India not to see this leader head the country, but Gujarat will continue to be fortunate to see unseen heights of glory. Gujarat will soon be the only state that can compete with China and its growth.