Friday, April 8, 2011

72 year old man forces Government to act against corruption


Every layman on the streets of India – be it literate or illiterate can talk lengths and depths about corruption in India and how it affects him/her. For almost 40 years, the anti-corruption bill has been put on the backburner and every time a weak version of it had been introduced in Parliament. Every time it had been defeated and no urgency was shown either by Congress or BJP. 

The bills introduced in 1996, 1998 and 2001 included the PM also subject to scrutiny. However, after Manmohan Singh came in, the PM was removed from its ambit (No one knows why). Irrespective of Congress or BJP the bill has not been taken seriously with respect to implementation. Every time the bill lapsed and was sent to further review. Already 3 such committees have studied and modified the bill, but in vain.

Existing Mechanism:

Anybody (any govt officer) can be booked under Prevention of Corruption Act 1988, but requires state/central government permission to drag the person to court. So, essentially a citizen can only expose (that too if the citizen is still alive after exposing), but no legal mechanism be easily started. Simply put - the Congress or BJP would ask ministers to resign and keep on boasting about taking actions.

With the government reeling under multiple scams (2G, ISRO-Antrix, Commonwealth, cash-for-votes, Adarsh society, IPL, Quatrochi, Central Vigilance Commission appointment of Thomas - wonder how can so many scams emerge and PM doesn't even know about it. It is carelessness and abysmal leadership by a clean PM) running into 16 times India’s current deficit, the people now have very thin line of patience. 

In early 2000, the Lokayukta was set up in 18 states but no powers were given to prosecute the officers. Today, only Karnataka has a fairly successful Lokayukta. However, its powers of prosecution have never been fully sanctioned. This has made the body meaningless. Yes, it does expose officers, but who wants just that.

What’s going on now?

A trigger was just required. It finally took 72 year old Anna Hazare to sit on a fast and force the PM to draft the bill by a committee consisting of 50% government officials and 50% civil society members.

The reason: No parliament member alone can draft the bill which could slit his own throat when he/she is involved in corruption. The current bill (also known as Govt version of Lokpal bill has loopholes) mainly creates the body and exposes officers but doesn’t give powers to prosecute and drag officers to court. Hence, a set of people namely – Santosh Hegge (Former Supreme court justice and currently Karnataka’s lokayukta chief), Prashant Bhushan (Supreme Court lawyer) and Arvind Kejriwal (RTI activist) drafted the JAN LOK PAL Bill whose salient features include:

  • CBI, CVC will be merged into this agency.
  • The body will be independent of judiciary, executive and legislature just like Election Commission.
  • The body will have a citizen forum where public an express grievances/complaints and the officers have to execute and punish the guilty within 2 years of the report filed.
  • The body also would protect the whistleblowers.
  • All property and assets would be seized from the accused once proven guilty.

Joining Anna Hazare was retired IPS officer Kiran Bedi whom we all know and Swami Agnivesh. No politician was allowed to share the dias with Anna. Slowly, a lot of RTI activists, “India against corruption” NGO activists began to join. Facebook, Twitter, blogs were soon flooded with support for Anna. 4.3 million people joined to support in just 3 days!!!!

People joined the movement and lit candles at the India Gate at the very place where people celebrated at midnight cheering Team India for winning the WORLD CUP CRICKET last week. Protests, rallies were held in various cities – Bangalore, Ahmadabad, Thiruvananthapuram, Hyderabad, Chennai, Mumbai, Delhi and many others.

Have a look at how bollywood fraternity joined – Farah Khan, Anupam Kher, Hritik Rshan, Aamir Khan, Anupam Kher, Diya Mirza, Juhi Chawla, Madhur Bhandarkar and many more expressed their support either by physically joining the protest or tweeting and attracting lots of fans and citizens. The movement spread even to New York city where there is going to be a huge gathering of Indians on April 9th at Times Square.

THIS IS AN UNPRECENTED MOVEMENT. The last time such a movement happened was when Mumbai witnessed 26/11. The people seriously wanted safety and Chidambaram has done a remarkable job by personally monitoring the security and making the new body National Investigative Agency to finally look into all matters of this kind. Hope we get some equally good output from the government this time too.

The Govt was forced now to accept a demand and make Santosh Hegde, Anna, Kejriwal to form members of the committee which will be co chaired by Pranab Mukherjee (Finance Minister) to finalize the bill.

I hope that a real good legislation comes out quickly and gets passed quickly. If it doesn’t people should continue their agitation and not stop. This revolution is a must before we can really overtake the world.

The following questions, however, must clearly be legislated before the bill is passed:

1)      How will this anti-corruption body be constituted?
2)      Who would be elected?
3)      How will he be elected? Will there be a fixed term?
4)      What qualification is necessary for the members?
5)      How independently can they function?
6)      What will happen to the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) and CBI?
7)      What if this LokAyukta becomes corrupt?

The classic example is that CBI has been misused over and over by everyone in power and the Karnataka Lokayukta has not been given powers to act against corrupt officials. The Karnataka govt which wants to support Anna Hazare should first enact and give powers to Lokayukta. It is only then the CM would set a precedent.

It is very important that the govt considers who would be called a whistleblower and how is he protected if he is involved in exposing corrupt official.

Even if the above questions are not answered, clearly this movement shows there is impatience and growing anger against corruption in India.



Tuesday, January 25, 2011

India becomes world's 3rd largest SMALL CAR MANUFACTURER

It is 2011 now. Try watching any old Hindi movies of 70's and 80's. You will notice 2 standard cars on an average - Ambassador and Fiat. These were the only 2 cars one could possess until the entry of Suzuki (Maruti) in 80's. Thanks to Sanjay Gandhi and Indira Gandhi. He insisted that a common man must have a car and Indira Gandhi allowed for the collaboration of Suzuki with Indian govt thus creating the first auto revolution in India.

Post liberalization, auto production has been growing, but in the latter half of the 2000 decade, car production has tremendously increased. Today, on Indian roads, you will find an amazing variety of cars from Maruti to Nissan, from Volkswagen to BMW. The people have so many choices that if you still possess the Maruti Esteem, please think of synchronizing with the market. It is very old to have it!!

Have a look at some incredible statistics: (Source1 and Source2).


There are about 13 foreign companies (BMW, Fiat, Ford, GM, Honda, Hundai, Benz, Mitsubushi, Nisan,Toyota etc), 6 domestic companies (Tata, Chinkara, Mahindra, etc) involved in car production in India thereby heating up the market.

Car manufacturing total units as per 2009:(Source)

BIGGEST ADVANTAGE INDIA HAS:
  • Cheap and skilled labor. Almost 10-15% costs lesser against US and Europe - a huge gain for multi national companies
  • Huge market size.
  • The Auto Policy of 2002 that allows foreign companies to directly assemble/manufacture cars instead of collaboration route with local companies which China mandates.
  • Volkswagen, Hyundai, Nissan, Mitsubushi are investing in heavy R&D (research and development) to develop small cars customized to Indian roads. Huge job opportunities to people.
  • Hyundai cars made in India are a huge hit in Russia, Taiwan, Latin America and Africa.
  • Indian tractors are a huge hit in the US.  US is still the largest market for Indian tractors.
  • Pune has emerged as the hub of research of tractors mainly led by Mahindra and Mahindra and Deere
  • The Govt's new policy of emission standards - Bharat Stage III that is pressurizing car manufacturers to produce fuel-efficient and low emission output cars.
  • The growing number of RURAL PEOPLE PURCHASING CARS. It shows signs of a growing urban class.
  • An urban middle class of 300 million - almost 1/3rd of the population.
  • Banks making car loans easier - from 17% interest rate to 13-14% interest rate. (It is now bound to increase because of inflation).
  • Reduced costs of raw materials - almost 11% cheaper than US or Europe.
  • Lower manufacturing tax (8% excise duty).
  • Small cars suit most people because of crunching parking spaces and suits most middle class homes with respect to price/cost.
  • Unlike China which has been always having issues with non-safety components, The Auto Policy of India ensures that the foreign companies are putting the best practices and components in cars. Shocked about China...It is true....This is from CHINA DAILY newspaper
  • The cost of steel in India is one of the cheapest in the world.

INDIA OVERTAKES CHINA IN CAR EXPORTS:

Between 2008-2010 when the Europe and the US car companies where drowning in recession, India overtook China in car exports. Which means cars manufactured in India were exported in huge numbers than China. Here's the bloomberg report and times of india news confirming this. The biggest bet India has taken is that people will continue to buy small cars and hence the demand will always be there. However, we don't know how far will we go, though the future looks optimistic. The rising inflation which is burning the pockets of the common man, and huge deficit in city roads (highways are expanding) are continuing to be show stoppers for zooming car sales.

A bloomberg report which was published in Sept 2010 says that in less than 10 years sales of Mercedes Benz in India is going to be that of U.K as the growing number of millionaires are on the rise in India.

Hynudai exports 50% of its cars produced in India. It's i-20 and i-10 models are a huge hit overseas. Even several models of Maruti are being produced only for the purpose of exports.

Nissan expects to export 250,000 cars by the end of 2011. Fiat is planning to get $1 billion worth of auto components from India.

Britain, Italy, Germany, Netherlands and South Africa are countries that received exports worth $4.5 billion last year. This year it is expected to jump to $12 billion.


TATA NANO makes headlines in the US and forces China to invent such a vehicle.

Tata Nano is truly India's invention. With almost 10 patents in its favor, Nano is making inroads. However, due to the entry of many other companies giving several luxury features in cars, and production not matching the demand quickly, Nano sales have been going down. The management is aggressively marketing Nano by offering a lot of incentives and warranties.

Looking at the new research output which India has given to the world, China invented a similar one - Jiangnan Alto in Aug 2010.


INDIAN CARS - TRULY MADE BY INDIAN CAR COMPANIES - A HUGE HIT OVERSEAS:

Mahindra and Mahindra and Tata are truly most successful indigenous car production companies of India. The new electric car by TATA INDICA called VISTA is a huge hit in Bangkok. It promises 200 km on a single charge and acceleration of 0 to 100 km in 10 seconds. Nano, Vista and Indigo Manza are being exported to Mexico, Brazil. The order is for 100,000 cars. The demand may go up to 300,000. Here's the livemint article.

Mahindra's diesel trucks are going to hit US roads - Made in India, Drive in America. As it is tractors are the largest exported item to US market. The target is to capture at least 5% of US market. If this happens on a full fledged scale, it is a huge phi-lip to Indian auto industry.

Mahindra's jeeps run on ITALY's roads. Click here for the picture.

But, what is the share of India's exports on a global scale?

It is 1%, which is a very small number, but in less than 5 years, the industry expects to go up to 3% and if that happens then the expectations would be beaten and not just met.

Future Outlook:

The future of auto industry is very positive. Just to gauge this statement, look at the following developments happening. The list below is just some. Many more will happen.

Challenges before India's auto growth
  • It is very important that production of components keeps pace with demand. 
  • Power supply shortages
  • Infrastructure bottlenecks
  • More emphasis on R&D and management skills
  • Customer service skills and more customer friendly measures/discounts.
  • More emphasis that needs to be given to safety and fuel-efficiency.
  • It is very important that Indian auto industry starts investing in bringing more hybrid vehicles, vehicles which run on green energy. This is very crucial.
What are the bad effects of such an unprecedented growth?

  • Because of such an exponential growth, the number of cars on the road have increased leading to traffic mess in cities.
  • The traffic management is getting more challenging.
  • More parking spaces and open areas are required which puts a lot of stress on cities and highways.
  • Safety could be a big issue if the small car manufacturers do not take adequate measures to suit Indian roads where driving is a hell.
THE IMPACT OF CAR PRODUCTION ON THE ECONOMY:

This booming auto industry is changing the economic landscape of India. Aurangabad was a sleeping city in the past decade. Now with BMW setting up plant, Aurangabad is booming. So many malls are being set up, apartments are being built, real estate is heating up, jobs are being created.

Another example is how Kanchipuram has changed. Earlier known for temples and sarees, it is now a huge production base for Hyundai. Read this BBC article that captures the details of this news item where 300,000 cars are produced annually.

Chennai has become DETROIT OF INDIA. Chennai is home to
  • 5 global car majors production facilities.
  • 2 commercial vehicle production facilities.
  • 3 earth moving companies.
  • tyre major and 100 major auto component manufacturing companies.
  • 1.28 million cars are produced from this city (in the region Tiruvalluvar to Maraimalainagar)
  • It is home to National Automobile Testing center.
More can be read from this WASHINGTON JOURNAL - A NEW DETROIT RISES IN THE SOUTH.
Another interesting newspaper article is NEW YORK TIMES - MORE CARS COMING FROM INDIA.

According to industry experts, 22 million jobs are created till date because of the growing auto industry. Halol in Gujarat has now become the new industrial hot bed after Nano plant has been set up. Many more companies are targetting the same place to compete with Tata.

Tier-II and Tier-III cities are increasingly being penetrated so that car manufacturers can reach semi-urban and rural areas. 

At present 5% of India's GDP comes from auto sector which is significant with respect to industrial contribution which is about 20%.. 17% of Indirect taxes to Govt comes from this industry.

I hope that industry sets new benchmarks in automobile industry and become a major contributor to the Rising India story.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Why have onion prices skyrocketed? Solution?

Onion is one of the most common vegetables used in every household - be it in a poor, middle class or rich family. For everything onion is used. The rising onion prices brought down the government of Delhi headed by Sushma Swaraj in 1998.  Exactly last year around this time, I had written an interesting and a well researched article - Why vegetable prices are soaring? Read this article just to refresh the mind and it would be easy to follow the content below.

This is what the most intelligent political minister (apart from Manmohan Singh whose intelligence is never allowed to come out free and fairly) in the current Government led by Congress who is also a Harvard university graduate  gave a statement like this.


"Inflation is high, food inflation is very high... we are not sure whether we have all the tools in hands to control food inflation,"

It is like saying in Hindi - "Saawan jo aag lagaaye use kaun bhujaaye" - i.e If rain which is supposed to extinguish fire itself sets fire, then who is going to extinguish it? If a govt which claims that it is AAM AADMI allows the prices to escalate and then say they have no tools to control, who will help the AAM AADMI? While it is true that there is no single formula to contain inflation, the Govt can do several things to ensure that the prices are in check. Simply raiding on hoarders, cracking down on speculators won't work. How can we convincingly say that the real culprits are being booked for? Several times there is a nexus between the officials and the hoarders and hence it is not effective.  Banning exports is a tried and tested idea.


None of these are able to bring down the prices of onion. In the wholesale market, people purchased onions at Rs. 34/- while from the retail at Rs.80/- What a difference. The margin is more than 120%. What is causing this difference? The profit margin can be at max 30% but not 120%. Who is eating away the money? Why are consumers helpless?

If you carefully analyze my earlier posted article on "Why vegetables prices are soaring high?", it would be aptly clear that there is no regulation on how prices can be increased and decreased. Anyone sets arbitrary prices and that penetrates the market ultimately making the consumer suffer. The farmer never gets the right money. The consumer ends up paying entirely jacked up price. 

The middle layer which consists of hoarders, speculators, commission agents really capture the market. The commission agents get almost 6% paid in several markets in Delhi. These commission agents bring the wholesaler to suppliers and get the profit. In Bangalore, several truck load of onions were auctioned in the market. Here's an article that explains how onions were auctioned in markets in Bangalore. 

When prices dip below, the farmers strike. The middlemen say they are not be blamed. This has distorted the demand supply chain. The govt simply says due to excess rains onions were destroyed in Maharashtra, but couldn't the Govt take enough steps? It simply will not. As long as our system depends on the Govt to deliver, we will fail to see it.


Here's the chart printed in Times of India newspaper indicating the profit margins made in different cities.



So, what's the solution?

It's high time that government gives a serious thought to contract farming and/or allow FDI in retail. In contract farming there is usually a legal agreement between companies/corporates and the farmers. It works both ways - companies assure good prices and farmers assure regular supply. The classic case is how GUJARAT FARMERS are progressing due to contract farming in cotton. Another classic case is PUNJAB farmers and Pepsico have joined hands and are making farmers rich, spurring rural growth.

If just one or 2 companies enter the market, they can create a monopoly. However, if several companies come into the focus, prices will have to come down for each of them to survive.  There is no way for Govt to regulate the prices and assure right prices to farmers through the APMC yards or mandis. These are to protect the farmers, but they are destroying them. 

These APMC yards and government godowns are not good enough to store any vegetables or any farm products. Contract farming will ensure that the supplies are stored and processed correctly. 

What makes contract farming more productive is that companies will emphasize the need for using efficient water irrigation techniques, better seed inputs, fertilizers and guide the farmers. These ensure that the crops are healthy and fetch high value. The knowledge imparted to farmers is immense that they can give it to the next generation while the market and the consumer benefit the most. 

Just think - When BSNL had monopoly over telecom industry, what service and quality did we get? The moment Spice, Vodafone, Airtel and several such companies came into the market, the prices dropped so low that India perhaps has the lowest cellphone tariffs in the world. It is another matter that our broadband hasn't caught up that much. That day is also not far when even this problem will slowly fade away.

There are people who will always complain against capitalization of agriculture. The fact is the existing system is in no way better and is only causing immense distress to the farmer and the consumer. Regulation can be done, but the initiative has to be taken. Convince me as to how the existing system is helping the farmer, forget the AAM AADMI. 

Will someone in the govt listen? Definitely, "No". This is because Congress is assured that it will win the next elections when Rahul Gandhi will become the PM. There is an over confidence and complacency set in the minds of the Congress. The opposition BJP must support contract farming as it allows in its own state of Gujarat and Punjab. It should not catch in votes of the people who will vote against contract farming.

The Govt is busy in drafting National Food Security Act. What use will such an act do if we don't plug the loopholes in our transportation and distribution mechanism of food? There is no denying that Congress party built this country, but will it allow to ruin now?

The AAM AADMI wants solutions. The growing Indian market requires urgently these bold steps. It is important to remove the layer of immense profiteering by several hoarders, middlemen and commission agents.

It simply is pinching the pockets of every Indian. The rising prices of onions has made onion items removed from several restaurants both in Bangalore and Mumbai. WATCH THIS VIDEO FOR THIS. They are charging extra if a person orders Onion Dosa, Onion Sambar etc. It looks like everyone has to jump to the Jain diet of not having onions and garlic.

Monday, December 20, 2010

The corruption termite bites India big time

The corruption termite has bit and continues to bite India big time. This time it is the largest in money post independence - $40 billion. Unfortunately, it is Congress again at the Center of the controversy. In 1980's corruption in Bofors case made Congress lose power. In 1996, P,V. Narasimha Rao corruption cases made Congress lose power. Now, Manmohan Singh stands to lose power. However, a weak BJP is no threat to Congress. As long as journalists like  Sheela Bhatt, Vir Sanghvi - all these continue to idolize Congress and claim that is the only party of governance, Congress will be the darling. It is not as if BJP is clean as it claims.  The hope Manmohan Singh being the PM which so far lit up the heart of an Indian is today shut off. I am amazed at how Dr. Singh could not act and allowed his government to run like that of Narasimha Rao govt.

First, it was the CWG games scam, then came housing scam - how many more to go - Mr. Singh.? The real India has 2 sides. On one hand, it is growing like never before with 9% growth and all the world turned towards us, and on the other hand the corruption continues to grow and swell too.

The intention of writing this article is to give readers a chance to understand how Manmohan Singh allowed the biggest corruption to take place under him and he did not act at all. His deafening silence is admission of his guilt. PM is not corrupt, but by not acting against the corrupt (despite 3 times notice served to A. Raja), he admits his guilt. Let us study how all it happened in simple terms.


First, prior to A. Raja becoming the Telecom Minister, the policy of First come first serve basis (FCFS) was followed to allot new entrants who wanted to provide cell phone service. Basically, according to FCFS policy, the date of application by the new entrant was the criteria in processing the application. Based on the dates, all the entrants/bidders were auctioned as per the prevailing market price of the spectrum. 

However, page 66 of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report shows how Raja changed the system of FCFS without the approval of The Cabinet, Telecom Regulatroy Authority of India (TRAI), Finance Ministry  and Empowered Group of Ministers headed by Pranab Mukherjee. He used the criteria of agreement to Letter of Intent (LoI) as the criteria instead of the application date. The letter of Intent (LoI) is the letter given by the Telecom ministry as a document of agreement stating that the operator can provide the service after paying the respective fees. Before giving any LoI, the Minister studies the company profile, takes the recommendations of TRAI and Department of Telecommunications (DoT). All these rules were flouted by A. Raja

Let's look back as how events unfolded. 

Around June 2007, 575 applications were received who wanted to buy 2G spectrum to provide cell phone service in the booming telecom market in India. At that time the subscriber base had jumped to 350 million from just 4 million in 2001. Although 575 applications were received the spectrum was scarce and only 150 applicants could be alloted the spectrum. However, A Raja chose to play with the system and he decided to allot the spectrum to only those companies which he had prior contacts with. Real estate companies which had no prior telecom experience started applying. The queue was getting formed illegally and Raja now decided to favor some companies over the other. Spice, Idea who were waiting to provide services in Delhi and Maharashtra and applied in 2006 got pushed to the end while SWAN and UNITECH who applied in 2008 got shortlisted. The spectrum was sold to them at 2001 prices instead of the current market price.

When this came to the notice and Raja had still not issued the LoI, The DoT sent a letter on Oct 27, 2007 asking Raja to follow the auction mechanism. 

The PM Manmohan Singh also shot a letter on Nov 2, 2007 asking Raja to follow the transparent auctioning mechanism. However, Raja continued to write tricky and clever detailed letter - that following such a mechanism is harmful to telecom sector.

Dec 26, 2007 - The PM acknowledges receiving the letter and did not even send an objectionable letter mainly because DMK pressurized the PM not to act - A brazen act of cowardice. I question Sonia Gandhi as to why and how she could tolerate all this. This is where PM's mistake lies.

Dec 27, 2007 - DoT warns Raja again on issuing LoI to the new companies and asking to stop violating all norms that were in the rule book. 

Dec 31, 2007 - Finance Secretary retired and the LoI given by Raja to Finance Ministry to sign did not get approved.

By Jan 10th, 2008 - the new Finance Secretary is brought in and the LoI's signed. This was not brought to the notice of Finance Ministry or even the EGOM headed by Pranab Mukherjee taking everyone by surprise.

How did this decision go through? How could Manmohan never follow up this? Was he under constant pressure from DMK? What about Sonia Gandhi. It can't just happen that she is not aware of these things. How could she turn a blind eye? 

Despite giving licenses to 125 companies, only 35 operate till now. The remaining are not even in the market. So, who were these companies who were given spectrum and the spectrum at 2001 prices? Who is accountable for this money which runs to 1.76 lakh crores or $40 BILLION - enough to fund the entire country's defense, road and pro-poor schemes for almost 4 years.

This is how CAG report says: For more, also read this:

The entire process of allocation of UAS (Unified Access Service) licences lacked transparency and was undertaken in an arbitrary, unfair and inequitable manner. The Hon'ble Prime Minister had stressed on the need for a fair and transparent allocation of spectrum, and the ministry of finance had sought for the decision regarding spectrum pricing to be considered by an EGoM. Brushing aside their concerns and advices, DoT , in 2008, proceeded to issue 122 new licences for 2G spectrum at 2001 prices, by flouting every canon of financial propriety, rules and procedures," the 77-page report says. 
Source: Times of India - click here

When it so happened that 2 companies SWAN and UNITECH declared that they sold 45% and 60% of their stake to Etislaat and Telenor respectively - the TRAI and the CAG were alarmed to see that without a single customer the spectrum that they purchased was sold to foreign companies. The profit these companies made is the amount that had to be paid to the Govt. Many of the recipients of the  spectrum are fictitious companies. Many of them didn't even qualify for bidding.


The Supreme court came down heavily on Mr.Singh and asked him why he did not bother to answer the PIL filed by Subramanyam Swamy and why he acknowledged Raja's letter. CLICK HERE


The PM doesn't want to answer. Can his silence mean his guilt? Clearly, Manmohan has failed. His responsibility to act has failed and his intellect is of no use to either this country or himself. How can the media never blame him for anything? Sonia Gandhi asks ministers to resign and questions BJP that they cannot do the same. If BJP cannot do the same, it is their problem. But as a lady whom the entire media calls the Goddess - a saint - durga maata (I hate such journalists who idolize Sonia. I will understand Indira, but never Sonia. Sonia doesn't even come 1% close to Indira Gandhi's life style), what is she doing to prevent corruption in the country. It is time for you to act Madam, not to accuse BJP. Talk what you would do against these people. Merely, resignations are not going to help. A month ago, she gave a speech (click here) admitting that corruption has reached every sphere of India and she is worried about it. Does she forget that culture of corruption started during the Gandhi family that ruled this country for 50 years? Was it not her husband Rajiv Gandhi who had been involved in Bofors scam and yet no conviction has been made. For 5 years that Congress was in power during Narasimha Rao, what did Congress do? How will the Congress President act against her own party and government?

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Power of Indian democracy - Bihar elections

About 20 years ago (if my memory is not mistaken), there was a Telugu movie - BHARAT BANDH. It was a heart rendering, scary movie of a political turmoil in India where a corrupt, mafia and a ruthless politician resorts to every possible treachery and becomes the PM of India. It is here when he converts the country to a state of anarchy where women could be raped anywhere, people could be killed at will and law and order could be rewritten at will. This movie, according to me, was a depiction of what Bihar was turning into at that time.

Under Lalu's rule, Bihar had become a JUNGLE RAJ. Kidnapping, rape, murder - were so common that when my parents once went to Gaya, the auto driver said he cannot drive after 6 p.m. as he was scared of his life. I could not believe my parents were travelling in their own country, a democracy which they cherish and celebrate every year. Is this a state in my country? Is this the very state from which Chandragupta Maurya established the first Indian empire driving away the Greeks with a powerful army shocking even the mighty Europeans? I, at once, felt this is not India.

Every time during Lalu's raj, booth capturing was common. People's votes were tampered. This is the state Lalu left. This is the state in which people feared life and not death. (The state then saw the largest number of out flux of Biharis to every part of India esp, Delhi and Mumbai).

For more than 15 years, caste played such an important role in Bihar. Politicians exploited this to the core. This time, however, after seeing that a GOVT can deliver, people from all castes, religions voted for JD(U) -BJP combine. In fact, several Muslim constituencies overwhelmingly voted for BJP. 

Bihar's 2010 elections whose results came about  a  week ago proved something else. A leader, a worker emerged - Nitish Kumar. The way Nitish Kumar worked for the past 5 years (2005-2010) is truly an inspiration. Having put 54,000 criminals behind bars, constructed roads, hotels, buildings, bridges, he scripted the largest turn around in growth amongst the poorest states in India. Nitish won 206/243 seats. Congress was crushed, Lalu was decimated. This is the power of Indian democracy. The people vote for the leader who shows something on the ground, who stands firm and who never tolerates corruption. Nitish has given a reality and a hope upon that reality that he will convert Bihar into a developed state. This is not a typical promise every CM makes. He proved to a very big extent he can deliver and then rekindled the hope. Hope he delivers.



I had earlier written an article in Jan this year (click here) showing how Bihar is experiencing a revolution - social and economic. I will not repeat the same here. Bihar today is buzzing with roads, malls, colleges, education institutes, improved law and order. In fact, Delhi has become "rape capital", while Patna has become a safer place for women. 50% reservation for women in panchayats and local bodies is already enacted and is slowly bringing about a revolution in Bihar.


Bihar's poor girls are now given free bicycle so that they can go to schools. This has decreased the school drop off rate and increased their enrollment.


Nitish, after election, decided to enact RIGHT TO SERVICE BILL which makes it mandatory for state govt officials to give citizen services in a time bound manner. This step is to curb the red tapism and corruption.(Hope, this kicks off and works as expected)

Nitish Kumar writes a blog too....!!! Here's the link.

So, is everything perfect in Bihar? No, social parameters in Bihar are still the lowest. 33% is women's literacy rate - it is the lowest in the country. Bihar has the highest school drop off rate. Agriculture and industrialization hasn't yet taken off. All this can take place only when law and order is placed. Electricity needs is also Bihar's greatest challenge. Mass employment generation is the need of the hour. Corruption still exists. Of course, for a state that has not seen progress for 15 years, it is a long way to go. Unlike several other states - TamilNadu, Andhra, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Gujarat - Bihar lagged behind for 15 years. 

Bihar needs to aggressively follow the dual policy of agricultural growth coupled with industrialization. This is exactly what Modi is doing in Gujarat bringing massive employment opportunities to people. 

Some people remarked as to why I am so happy writing about Bihar. My comment to such a remark is this..".I am not a BIHARI, but I am an Indian. Whenever any of the poor states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh develop - the entire country grows with it. These poor states are the reason why India lacks behind. It is these BIMARU states that are holding back India's development. These states have the highest population density and the least governed parameters. Hence, the success of these states is very critical to India's rise."

Rahul Gandhi has a serious thing to do. Inspire an Indian to vote for him. Explain why should one see him as the future PM candidate. I don't see any charm other than age that acts as his biggest strength (apart from the obvious fact that he is a Gandhi). Rahul gave almost 6 speeches, stayed in Dalit's houses, made huge promises. None of his speeches was either inspiring nor had a vision to be happy of. I wonder why media continues to hype him. In fact, I was glad when media reported this question - Is Rahul over rated? Click here to watch the video. Congress just got 4 seats out of all 243 seats it contested (losing 5 seats from the last time) 

Nitish Kumar, Narendra Modi and in fact Sheila Dikshit stand as better contenders to PM than Rahul Gandhi.   

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Why is Indian economy so important for Obama?

From 3 hours when Eisenhower visited India to 3 days of Obama visit, India has come a long way and so is the recognition of India's rise by the sole great power - United States.

If one followed the print or electronic media last week, one would be flooded with emails, videos and articles of Obama's visit to India. On one hand, some have exaggerated to the core saying it was extra-ordinary, wonderful and path breaking while on the other some have said it was too much hype. One of the most interesting facts was that every speech of Obama talked about American jobs. There is nothing unusual about the President talking about his own countrymen amidst the mid-term election defeats back in his country. One of the things he knew was that the slow pace of recovery has made people impatient. If the US cannot pump money into the market to simulate the economy, the easiest way is to export its own goods and get the trade money into the market. This is simple economics that Obama and his 200 member CEO team had in mind and came to India.

Can India be of this great help to the US? Does the world's sole super power need India's help to bring life back into its economy? Is this a reality we live in where Asian countries - India and China have become indispensable not just to the US, but also to the world?

INDIA IS A MILITARY POWER : IT's  A REALITY

The answer is "yes". India first showed its military power by a single invasion of East Pakistan in 1971 shocking the world (thanks to Smt. Indira Gandhi) and the second instance when we conducted Pokhran -II (under Vajpayee). The latter incident made the world realize that India cannot be taken easily. It is a matter of great prestige that since then US and Indian armed forces (air force, navy and army) have conducted several joint operations (almost 50 such exercises that has been an excellent training for both) learning from each other. India today has the 4th largest army in the world and is a rising military power (It is another matter that our indigenous defence development is not strong). Last week when Obama came, he signed several billion dollar deals of defence equipment, machinery and fighter planes. The US just from military sales to India made more then 10 billion dollars money. This is beneficial to India as India gets the best technology and the latest weaponry. Our defense forces can't expect more than this.  Could any Indian imagine this 10 years ago? No way because despite our poverty, unemployment and corruption plaguing us then and now, we have shown that as a democracy we can grow despite the government. Indians are sharp enough that given a chance they can take over the world. In his visit to India, Obama so categorically said he is removing DRDO, ISRO and other defence organizations from the "restricted entities list". This means that all these establishments can now trade and have technology transfer with the US - something India badly needs. It is an achievement for India.!!!

Once this happens, expect outsourcing even in this field as India will continue to develop on its own and export. 

Let us not forget that for India, Russia has been a very reliable source of ammunition while US may be reliable now, but may become unreliable a decade later.

INDIA IS A RISING ECONOMIC POWER: IT's A REALITY:

This might surprise everyone, but the fact is Indian exports to US has exceeded US imports to India. US wants to reverse this. Hence, they came with such a big CEO team to have deals with Indian business counterparts. The following chart shows trade surplus which India has because India's exports to US has exceeded than US imports to us.

Note: Our trade surplus has been rising and is 7 billion dollars because of exports of jewelry, spices, software and garments. Of the total trade with the world, US trade with India is around 2% ,which Obama did mention in his speech in Mumbai. He wants this to increase and it is beneficial for Americans because they tend to get jobs. Look at this - US finalizes deals with SpiceJet, Air India and Jet to buy $28 billion dollars worth of aircraft. In turn, this will create 280,00 jobs in the US.

India withstood the global recession because of in-house demand that continues to drive the economy to 9%. Unlike China, India is growing on the basis of domestic demand and not on exports.


US companies also want to invest in roads and highways - something which India needs as there is an expansion boom going on. 
Obama and his economic team believes that trade with India can multiply if India opens up its retail market allowing access to the middle class population, thereby benefiting both India and US. However, opening the retail market to US is a step that needs to be taken with utmost smartness and being cognizant of the huge middle class which controls the retail market. This is a lengthy discussion that is beyond the discussion of this topic.

INDIA and US in CLEAN ENERGY: 
India has invested heavily in wind and solar and it requires further research impetus from the US. Hence, Obama announced a joint research center for this and also for nuclear energy and shale gas. In the long term India gets to benefit from this.

INDIANS ARE IMMENSELY CONTRIBUTING TO US ECONOMY: IT's a REALITY

There is no elaboration needed and this is no joke at all. Just to give the numbers. There are currently almost 10,000 Indian American owners of hotels/motels in the U.S., owning over 40 per cent of all hotels in the country and 39 per cent of all guest rooms; the study says they own more than 21,000 hotels with 1.8 million guest rooms and property valued at $129 billion. These Indian-owned facilities employ 578,600 workers.

The U.S. Census Bureau adds that there were 231,000 businesses owned by Indian Americans in 2002, which employed 615,000 workers and had revenues of over $89 billion. (The Census Bureau conducts the survey every five years, and the results of the 2007 survey will be available in a few days). A study led by Vivek Wadhwa for Duke University and the University of California, Berkeley, found that Indian immigrant entrepreneurs had founded more engineering and technology companies during 1995-2005 than immigrants from Britain, China, Japan, and Taiwan combined. Of all immigrant-founded companies, 26 per cent had Indian founders.  SOURCE:

THE IMMEDIATE AREA WHERE US and INDIA CAN HAVE A WIN-WIN CASE:

If one is aware, it is a sad reality that 40% of fruits, vegetables and other agricultural produce goes wasted because of improper storage and processing facilities. India has to rely on retail expertise on the American ones to ensure this wastage does not happen by letting the retail market organize itself. The farmers and the end customer both lose here. The farmers don't get the right price, the consumer ends up paying abnormal price and the middlemen gets all the cake. The creation of a healthy supply chain involving farmers is a must. However, what India should resist is the dumping of American goods without strengthening the Indian supply chain. No longer India can depend on the Govt or govt's policies in organizing the retail chain. The US will stand to greatly benefit because the Indian retail market is so immense that any role they plan in making this happen will benefit them monetarily. We have seen how Reliance (in-house) has failed despite opening retail stores simply because they lack management and business practices which the US best follows.

In short, the point is we are at a point where the US and India can not only generate jobs for each other, but also India stands to benefit greater if it allows controlled market access to the US. This way the PM will talk  about  the role of India in creating the jobs in the US.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

India becomes world's 5th largest installed wind power

Some facts fascinate the growth of India. This is surely one of them. INDIA is the WORLD's 5th largest in terms of installed electricity through wind power. Here is the report from the WORLD WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION OF THE WORLD confirming this. From a mere 4000 MW in 2005, we have now reached 13,000 MW in 2010. China is ahead with 25,000 MW. It is a journey that is taking the world by storm. India is not only producing electricity using wind energy, but also exporting wind turbines and blades to US, Europe, Africa. The components are also Indian made (80%). Now, one understands why Obama keeps talking of green jobs going to India and China.

How many have traveled to Kanyakumari? On the way you will see 100's of wind mill turbines on both sides of the road. I didn't realize the enormous benefit these turbines can give to Indian energy needs back in 2005. Today, I am amazed at the way wind energy is being tapped in the country.

There are about 18 private companies generating wind energy in India viz; Suzlon (5th largest in the world in wind energy generation and is an INDIAN COMPANY), Vestar, Gamesa, Enercon, RRB Energy, Shriram Leitner, Regen Power, a small number of companies in Coimbatore. By 2012-13, we are expected to grow to 18,000 MW. and by 2020 -  65,000 MW.  The 11th 5 year plan targets 9000 MW and we have already generated 5035 MW.

Here is the top 10 electricity producers of 2009 (using wind energy). We have increased by 2000 MW in  every year since 2005.
This is very interesting because in India the energy need is increasing exponentially as people are coming out of poverty and income levels are rising.

Today, the grid power capacity is 148 Giga Watt (GW) and only 16 GW comes from renewable energy (just more than 10%). However, this is all set to reach 90 GW in the next few years.

2 Classic examples of how this is changing the lives of people in some parts of India where it is heavily generated:

Dhule, Maharashtra:

Dhule has the largest windfarm in Asia.  800 Turbines generate about 1000 MW of Electricity.




Odanthurai, TamilNadu 



This village has 350kW windmill, solar panels and biomass gasifier which generate enough electricity that they make money by selling it to TamilNadu Electricity Board.



TAMILNADU, MAHARASHTRA and GUJARAT are the top 3 producers of electricity through wind energy in India.



Nowadays, with the set up of so many companies, the latest standards and practices are being used. However, transmission losses are inevitable, but the kind of technology that is being used in the generation is slowly showing its efficiency in this aspect.
Recently, Siemens entered the market and has begun to generate electricity.

On the flip side, the private companies should get incentives when they sell power. The charges they get is lesser than the ones generated from coal and water. Hence, the government has to make this lucrative. The usual problems like land acquisition, getting forest clearances delays in getting these has slowed down the momentum. Here are the some of the incentives government is giving to private companies that generate power from wind energy.

At the national level, wind power development benefits from fiscal and financial incentives, including provision of 80% accelerated depreciation; a ten-year tax holiday; and favorable provisions on wheeling, banking and third party sale. Eighteen out of the twenty-nine Indian states now have in place Renewable Purchase Specification (RPS) with mandatory purchase requirement of green energy of up to 10% and have introduced preferential tariffs for electricity produced from renewable sources

The scene as of now looks very optimistic with every major private company willing to investment in electricity generation as Govt badly needs them to meet the energy requirements.

Unlike solar, wind energy is not uniformly available in India. The west, north west and south India are the best suited while north and east are not.

So, have our electricity problems vanishing? The answer to this is "yes" and "no"....Yes, because the electricity generation is slowly shifting to  private players who are more easily meeting the planned targets. No, because the share of coal and water in electricity generation is still close to 90%. This has to increase, but expecting from private players can be much more forthcoming than the government.